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To raise ferry or hold out for survivors in air pockets?

In the dark:Cranes of South Korean teams search for missing passengers of the Sewol under the light of flares, near Jindo, South Korea, on Sunday.— PHOTO: AP

Four days after South Korea’s shattering ferry disaster, grieving relatives were split on Sunday over whether to approve of a move to bring the search for survivors to an end and let cranes raise the vessel to the surface.

There are five giant floating cranes at the scene, but President Park Geun-hye gave her personal assurance to the families of the hundreds still missing that salvage operations would begin only after all likelihood of finding survivors was lost. Amid the hope that some might have survived inside trapped air pockets, relatives were wary that raising the vessel may have fatal consequences.

Nearly 60 people have been confirmed dead, but more than 240 are still unaccounted for — most of them children on an organised high school holiday.

A psychological turning point came when divers began retrieving bodies from inside the ferry on Sunday. Coastguard officials said 16 bodies had been removed.

Many relatives had hoped passengers may have survived in trapped air pockets, and feared that raising the ship would have fatal consequences. While some remain convinced that their loved ones are still alive, others have begun to accept the probability there will be no survivors.

A transcript released on Sunday of communications with the ferry details crippling confusion and indecision, with a crew member questioning whether an evacuation was the right move after the ship began listing dangerously.

“If this ferry evacuates passengers, will they be rescued right away?” a crew member on the ferry Sewol asked Jindo Vessel Traffic Services Center (VTS) at 9.24 a.m. on Wednesday, about a half-hour after the ship began to list.

That followed several statements from the ship saying it was impossible for people aboard the ship to even move, and another in which it said it was “impossible to broadcast” instructions.

The VTS official said patrol boats would arrive in 10 minutes, but did not mention that another civilian ship was already nearby. The captain initially ordered passengers to stay in their rooms and took more than half an hour to issue an evacuation order which many passengers said they never heard. — AFP, AP

South Korean ferry disaster: Transcript reveals confusion, indecision over evacuation

JINDO, South Korea: A transcript released on Sunday of communications with the South Korean ferry that sank details crippling confusion and indecision, with a crew member questioning whether an evacuation was the right move well after the ship began listing dangerously.

"If this ferry evacuates passengers, will they be rescued right away?'' a crew member on the ferry Sewol asked Jindo Vessel Traffic Services Center (VTS) at 9.24am on Wednesday, about half-an-hour after the ship began listing. That followed several statements from the ship saying it was impossible for people aboard the ship to even move, and another in which it said it was "impossible to broadcast'' instructions.

"Even if it's impossible to broadcast, please go out and let the passengers wear life jackets and put on more clothing,'' an unidentified VTS official urged just before the Sewol asked about the prospects for rescue.

"The rescue of human lives of Sewol ferry ... the captain should make your own decision and evacuate them,'' the VTS official said. "We don't know the situation very well. The captain should make the final decision and decide whether you're going to evacuate passengers or not.''

"I'm not talking about that,'' responded the unidentified ferry crew member. "I asked, if they evacuate now, can they be rescued right away?''

The VTS official said patrol boats would arrive in 10 minutes, but did not mention that another civilian ship was already nearby and had said 10 minutes earlier that it would rescue anyone who went overboard.

The captain initially ordered passengers to stay in their rooms, and took more than a half hour to issue an evacuation order — an order several passengers have said they never heard. More than 50 bodies have been recovered, about 250 people remain missing and only 174 are known to have survived. 

Article 370 has not helped J&K: Rajnath

Those opposing abrogation of Article 370 should spell out how it had benefited Jammu and Kashmir, BJP president Rajnath Singh said and favoured a debate on the constitutional provision that grants special status to the State.

“Our stand is that because of this [Article 370], Jammu and Kashmir has not benefited at all. Had it benefited, had it helped in reduction of poverty, then we would welcome it. But this has not happened,” Mr. Singh told PTI in an interview.

In its poll manifesto , the party has said: “The BJP reiterates its stand on the Article 370 and will discuss this with all stakeholders and remains committed to the abrogation of this Article.” If the NDA comes to power, the BJP chief said, there would be quest for friendly ties with expectation of reciprocity.

“Pakistan is our neighbour. We will want to have good relations with it and all other neighbours. We also expect Pakistan to have good relations with India,” he said.- PTI

Ethnic massacre in South Sudan

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Rebel gunmen in South Sudan massacred “hundreds” of civilians because of their ethnicity when they captured a key oil town last week, the U.N. said on Monday. It was one of the worst reported atrocities in the war-torn nation.

In the main mosque alone, “more than 200 civilians were reportedly killed and over 400 wounded,” the U.N. mission in the country said. Civilians including children were also massacred at a church, hospital and an abandoned U.N. World Food Programme (WFP) compound, it said.

Fighters took to the radio to urge men to rape women from the opposition ethnic group and said rival groups should be forced out of the town. South Sudan’s army has been fighting rebels loyal to sacked Vice-President Riek Machar, who launched a renewed offensive this month targeting key oil fields. The conflict has taken on an ethnic dimension, pitting President Salva Kiir’s Dinka tribe against militia forces from Mr. Machar’s Nuer people.

Hate messages

U.N. human rights investigators said that after rebels wrested Bentiu from government forces in heavy battles last Tuesday, the gunmen spent two days hunting down those they believed opposed them.

Both South Sudanese and Sudanese — some from the war-torn Darfur region — were killed, the U.N. peacekeeping mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) said in a statement.

Some rebels took to the local radio to “broadcast hate messages declaring that certain ethnic groups should not stay in Bentiu, and even calling on men from one community to commit vengeful sexual violence against women from another community,” the statement added. — AFP

Affordable air power

The Defence Minister is entirely justified in refusing to sign a $20 billion contract with Dassault Aviation of France for 126 Rafale fighters while life cycle costs are still disputed; these costs are typically at least three times as much as the initial acquisition price over the three to five decades that combat aircraft often operate for. As we head for a new government in Delhi, it is appropriate to consider alternatives to this hugely expensive acquisition.

India’s geostrategic environment requires the Indian Air Force (IAF) to be prepared for a simultaneous two front confrontation at multiple levels. This necessitates a combat aircraft mix of expensive high-end fighters like the Su-30 and the forthcoming fifth generation fighter aircraft along with large numbers of cheaper tactical aircraft. The latter could easily deal with low intensity conflicts where it might be risky to use high value assets like the Sukhois.

Rapid retirement of hundreds of MiG-21s, -23s and -27s that have been the tactical backbone of the IAF for decades leaves just over six upgraded MiG-21 and four ground attack MiG-27 squadrons. This means that the IAF’s inventory of combat aircraft is currently well below its sanctioned 39-and-a-half squadron strength perhaps unable to fight widely spaced conflagrations against even a single adversary. Its 2001 plan to fill the gap by significantly adding to the 49 Mirage 2000s it then had was scuppered by Defence Ministry mandarins who forced it to go in for competitive tendering. Delays in the procurement process saw the Mirage going out of production and international pressure made sure that the final tender included much heavier and expensive aircraft than the tactical ones that the service originally wanted, leave alone needed.

Cost of aircraft

A request for proposals (RfP) finally went out on July 28, 2007 for 126 Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCAs), with an option for 63 more. Rs.42,000 crore, then worth approximately $10.25 billion, was budgeted to purchase the 126 aircraft. Recent reports indicate that the short-listed Rafales are now expected to cost over $20 billion, not least because of nearly 50 “miscellaneous” items that were left unpriced as part of the original French bid. Not only will the 126 aircraft cost about twice as much in dollar terms as originally budgeted for, depreciation of the rupee with respect to the dollar since the RfP was issued from less than 41 to over 60 will force us to effectively pay about three times as much, nearly Rs.120,000 crore, just in initial acquisition costs with over Rs.30,000 crore of that paid up front.

Interestingly, five of the same aircraft that participated in the Indian MMRCA competition were simultaneously bid for in a similar Brazilian tender. The head of the Brazilian Air Force (FAB), Juniti Saito, has recently stated that they chose the Swedish Gripen NG after an exhaustive evaluation emphasised its performance, the degree of technology transfer and price. The FAB estimated that it would cost $4,000 per flying hour rather than about $14,000 for the heavier Rafale. SAAB quoted $4.5 billion as the initial acquisition cost of the Gripens plus $1.5 billion for maintenance support over 30 years while the Rafale was $8.2 billion, plus $4 billion.

The Rafale’s quoted unit cost was thus 82 per cent more than that for the single-engined Gripen while the Brazilians estimated that the Rafale’s two engines and expensive maintenance would make it cost a full 250 per cent more to keep in the air.

These figures for the Rafale are in line with those from the defence and security committee of the French Senat which estimated in 2011 that the Rafale programme cost would be €43.56 billion for 286 aircraft.

The largely Indian designed and developed Tejas multirole light combat aircraft (LCA) is not in the same class as the Rafale, but it is far more capable than the MiG-21s it was designed to replace. Modern radar and ground targeting systems, both coupled to a helmet-mounted display and sight, confer superb target acquisition and missile launch capability. Advanced beyond visual range and close combat missiles, along with precision guided munitions, make it more potent than the more powerful MiG-23s and -27s. Even if unit prices rise to $30 million by the time it attains full operational capability, 126 Tejas fighters would still cost well under $4 billion, or a fifth of an equal number of Rafales.

Operating costs would probably be comparable to that of the frugal Gripen largely because it is small, light and powered by a slightly different version of the efficient and hugely reliable GE-F404 engines that also power currently operational Gripens.

While exact comparisons between the Brazilian and “leaked” quotations for Indian Rafales are not possible, not least because of differences in numbers and payment terms, the small difference in unit acquisition cost between the two suggests that the widely reported Indian estimates are very credible. The IAF could buy 200 Tejases instead of 126 Rafales and still save nearly $14 billion or Rs.84,000 crore; this is closely comparable to the 2013-14 capital acquisition budget for the Indian Army, Navy and Air Force. The FAB’s estimates also suggest that the IAF would save over $170 million annually even if 200 Tejases, instead of 126 Rafales, each flew 15 hours per month.

Losing credibility

There is no doubt that Indian designers took on the ambitious task of developing an advanced technology aircraft without realistically estimating the resources required to accomplish their goals in the face of an often sceptical IAF and not always fully committed Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL). They then lost a great deal of credibility by projecting completion dates that were, at best, exercises in self-delusion. The Tejas has fortunately got a recent lift because Dr. R.K. Tyagi, HAL’s current chairman, seems committed to the little fighter.

It would be extremely foolish to break up the Tejas teams involved in the further development of its composite airframe and world class flight control system while full operational capability is very much a work in progress and redesign of the aircraft to more fully meet the IAF’s needs is at a critical stage.

Some commentators seem unaware that the Rafale entered service in 2001 nearly 15 years after it first took to the air; an interval that will only be slightly exceeded when the Tejas reaches Final Operational Clearance (FOC) late next year. The IAF has been far more demanding of the Tejas than it has been with respect to the MMRCA contenders whether on the hot and high airstrip at Leh or during Jaisalmer’s dusty summers. The service also seems to have forgotten that the Mirage 2000 was armed only with a cannon for three years after it entered service; largely ineffectual during the dangerous “Operation Brass Tacks” of 1986-87.

To summarise, going ahead with the MMRCA programme will cripple India for decades to come. Affordable air power is effective air power. Conversely, unaffordable air power is poor strategy.

Thousands bid farewell to ‘Gabo’

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Mexico bid farewell on Monday to its beloved adopted son, Colombian novelist Gabriel Garcia Marquez, with thousands of fans filing past his ashes in a music-filled tribute to the Nobel laureate. A coffee-coloured urn containing his ashes was placed on a pedestal, surrounded by yellow roses — his favourite flowers — in Mexico City’s domed Fine Arts Palace.

Fans streamed to pay their last respects to the author of One Hundred Years of Solitude , taking pictures as a string quartet played classical music.

The presidents of Mexico and Colombia delivered speeches to honour the giant of Latin American literature. Known affectionately as “Gabo,” Garcia Marquez died on Thursday. He was 87