OPINION POLL

Congress demand for ban on opinion polls is against right to free speech
Congress is exposing itself as a poor sport for its criticism of opinion polls, even calling for a ban on them, as the country heads for elections to five state assemblies followed by general elections next year. Congress, more than any other party in India's turbulent political history, has weathered many elections in the past, winning some and losing some. It hasn't called for banning opinion polls before. Asking for this important electoral barometer to be proscribed now is giving the gameaway even before it has begun in right earnest.

Congress's anxieties over opinion polls may stem from recent surveys that predict defeat for the party in elections to the five assemblies. Opponents of opinion polls will claim that pre-election surveys of voters skew results in favour of one party. But nothing has been empirically established about such claims - in fact, the two kinds of claimed effects, the bandwagon effect and the underdog effect, cancel each other out. The bandwagon effect happens when you see the party you support winning in opinion polls, which might mobilize you to go out and vote; while the underdog effect happens when you see the party you support losing in opinion polls, which could also energize you into going out and voting. In effect, both sides gain. 

Another argument against opinion polls is that they are based on a restricted sample and therefore cannot be truly accurate. But it's paternalistic to assume that ordinary people don't understand this, also that they will vote merely in the direction they see other people voting. All democracies which permit free speech do not ban opinion polls months before elections. India should not be the sole exception in this regard.

AAP seeks regulatory mechanism for opinion polls

Opposing a ban on opinion polls, the Aam Aadmi Party on Wednesday sought transparency and a regulatory framework for conduct of such polls. In case of dispute on the findings, the surveying agency should share raw data.

“The Congress is scared that public opinion is not in its favour and would use this opportunity to ban opinion polls but that is not the solution to the big opinion polls scam that has been revealed in a television sting operation,” the party said.

Alleging a “conspiracy to manipulate public opinion,” the party questioned the role of a section of media houses that “partnered the political conspiracy” and asked the News Broadcasters Standards Authority and the Editors Guild of India to conduct an enquiry into it.

“The political conspiracy that challenges the very foundations of our democracy needs to be investigated,” the party said, demanding a criminal investigation by a Special Investigative Team.

Addressing a joint press conference here with Yogendra Yadav and Prashant Bhushan, AAP convener Arvind Kejriwal raised doubts about a flurry of election opinion polls in the last few weeks that show successive higher seat projections for the BJP in the Lok Sabha election.

“This is just as it was being done before the Delhi elections,” he said.

If the sting was true it was “the darkest hour” for the media, he said and demanded that media houses should disclose their list of share holders, investors, lenders, annual financial statements and their political affiliations and any other business interests outside media.

EC probes sting on opinion polls

‘Upto Govt To Ban Such Surveys’

TIMES NEWS NETWORK 

New Delhi: Following allegations that some agencies had ‘manipulated’ opinion polls for monetary consideration, CEC V S Sampath said the Election Commission would examine the matter and take action. The CEC said the onus is on the government to take up the Commission’s recommendation on banning opinion polls for a certain period. 
    “As far as opinion polls are concerned, commission has taken a view, not today but ten years back in the year 2004 after they held an all-party meeting. They made their recommendations, subsequently also they collected the views of different political parties which have been given. The ball is in the court of the government,” Sampath said. 
    The EC had in its recommendation called for restriction on opinion polls for a specified period during the election process. 
    He was asked as to what course of action the Election Commission would take on the claims made by a TV channel which did a sting operation on some polling agencies. "We will certainly look into the matter. Whatever legal action that needs to be taken, that will be duly examined,” Sampath replied.

Govt awaits law panel report on poll reforms

TIMES NEWS NETWORK 

New Delhi: The government is waiting for the Law Commission’s recommendation whether opinion polls should be banned from the date of notification of elections before any decision is taken on the issue. 
    The commission had last month indicated that its report on comprehensive electoral reforms will be submitted to the government only by April, making it clear that all such issues will be taken up by the new government. However, law commission chairman Justice A P Shah had said on January 28 that he is not in favour of a ban as it violates Article 19 (1) (a) of the Constitution providing for freedom of speech and expression. Though, he clarified it was only his ‘personal opinion’ and that the panel had not taken a view on the issue. 
    The law ministry had referred the matter to the commission along with other issues related to electoral reforms. The EC favours a ban and had written to the government on it. Aban on opinion polls would require amendment in the Representation of the People Act. 
    “The issue of electoral reforms in its entirety, which includes ban on opinion polls and ads in print media on the day of polls, has been referred to the law commission for its recommendation,” Law minister Kapil Sibal said on February 12.

Irrational exuberance: ban opinion polls

Why is the knee-jerk reaction among Indians to indulge in bans? What did the burning and banning (figuratively; in reality it was withdrawing from circulation and pulping) of Wendy Doniger’s book on Hindus achieve or is likely to achieve? How many people’s views were affected, and of those whose views were changed, how does it matter? Assume the worst case scenario — some people in India, and only in India, actually believed what Doniger said about Hinduism. So what?

This is 2014, and such nonsense prevails because of the Indian’s irrational exuberance for “authority”. Back in 2004, the Election Commission of India came up with an anti-constitutional, anti-liberal view of banning opinion polls a full 45 days before the first date of polling. This was then expectedly rejected by the Supreme Court. The UPA government, not to have such minor matters as the Constitution come in the way of its interventionist ideology, amended the Representation of the People Act to support a ban of two days for opinion polls and no exit polls before all polls were completed. Possibly because of this “victory” over the Constitution, the 45-day ban is again making the rounds. Isn’t it time we questioned the EC’s view as stupid, irrational and totally devoid of any legal or moral or practical content?

It all started quite sensibly with M.S. Gill’s EC imposing restrictions on opinion and exit polls in February 1998. This policy was for NO prohibition or restriction of opinion polls until just two days prior to polling; and for no exit polls until 48 hours before the last polling day. As can be seen from the table, this was a reasonably enlightened policy and well within “best practices” in other democracies. Many countries have zero restrictions on polling. If there is a ban, it is of one to two days duration. The median is zero days and the average ban is of two days duration.  Italy is a clear outlier with a ban for a full 15 days before polling. The extreme outlier is the EC’s proposed 45-day ban.

Did the 2004 EC look at any data before coming out with its learned prescription? Its conclusion, which it keeps reiterating presumably every time they get prodded by an interested political party, has not changed all these years, especially years in which internet and social media penetration has expanded manifold. The effects of irrational bans, like in Italy, are predictable. Responding to the restriction, bloggers in Italy found imaginative ways to make the ban look stupid. One site termed elections as horse races and candidates were, well, horses with thinly disguised names. Another site had candidates as cardinals selecting the pope.

Contrast the Italian behaviour (disrespect for irrational authority) with that of an Indian (fawning respect for the same). Our norm is to respect  bad “authority” and worse “laws”. A true-life example is revealing. A leading TV channel was scheduled to broadcast the findings of  my research on the effects of economic performance and incumbency on voting behaviour. By no stretch of the imagination could my research be described as an “opinion poll”, and even by less imagination as an exit poll. Yet, the conservative Indian lawyers felt obligated to be safe and postponed the broadcast from December 3 (one day before polling date) to December 6, thus proving the adage that when the law is an ass, there are donkeys who feel compelled to follow.

Let us go a bit further into the implications of the proposed EC ban, and something for the SC to consider if the proposal reaches its enlightened shores for consideration and judgment. If the SC were to agree with the EC’s ultra-regressive views (all the “liberal” parties are in support and the non-”liberal” BJP is opposed to the ban), then how will the ban operate? Just yesterday, a respected international polling organisation, Pew, published its findings of a nationwide opinion poll (part of its global attitudes project). Over a period of one month (December 7, 2013 and January 12, 2014), it conducted a random all-India sample of only 2,464 respondents. It found that 60 per cent of the sample had a very favourable view of Narendra Modi compared to only 23 per cent for Rahul Gandhi, and a lesser 19 per cent for Sonia Gandhi. Interestingly, and possibly unconstrained by domestic manipulation, Pew Research found it informative to poll the same question for Anna Hazare and not Arvind Kejriwal. It could also be that the sample found too few respondents reacting “very favourably” to the Aam Aadmi Party representative.

Now many of our learned politicians, and perhaps even the EC and the SC, would want to ban the Pew opinion poll for its small size. How can one individual’s opinion possibly reflect the opinion of 3,25,000 potential voters? Off with the poll, and let us ban it after we burn it. The poll findings cannot possibly be right, for unlike the goras, we Indians know that we are a very heterogeneous population. And such a small sample size must have been undertaken because Pew is either “cheap” or has taken money from some politician/ political party/ industrialist.

Will the EC’s proposed ban mean that no survey data can be gathered and no one can go around asking questions about voting preferences? Of course not. So what happens when Pew gathers such information and publishes it on the internet? The whole world will know, and as the whole world is watching, the ban will be totally ineffective. This is the key point that all our policymakers must be made aware of. Duniya bahut badal gayee hai (The world has changed too much). Banning just does not work anymore, there are too many legal leakages in  the system and too many potholes on  the way to effective enforcement. Just grin and bear it — and don’t make a fool of yourselves.

AAP seeks clear guidelines from poll panel on opinion polls

The Aam Aadmi Party has sought “clear guidelines” from the Election Commission on opinion polls. It has also asked the News Broadcasting Standards Authority (NBSA) to unearth the role of political parties in manipulating such polls for monetary considerations as revealed in a recent sting operation by a television channel.

“It [the sting] reinforces the widespread belief that there is an attempt — as was in the Delhi Assembly polls last December — to manipulate the coming Lok Sabha elections. The last few weeks have seen a flurry of opinion polls with successive higher projections for a particular party,” AAP convener Arvind Kejriwal said in a letter to the Chief Election Commissioner.

Code of conduct

Reiterating the party’s opposition to a blanket ban on opinion polls, Mr. Kejriwal said the Commission should take “concrete steps” to ensure that a code of conduct was set for the publication/telecast of opinion polls. It might also remind the government to ensure that no motivated attempts were made to mislead people during the general election.

Let people hear all shades of opinion during polls: SC

The Supreme Court on Monday made it clear that freedom of speech could not be restricted during elections and people should hear all shades of opinion.

A Bench of Justices R.M. Lodha and Dipak Misra declined to entertain a petition filed by advocate Manohar Lal Sharma, who sought a direction to the Election Commission to restrain parties and candidates from making hate speeches and false promises. When counsel said parties and candidates should give an undertaking to desist from giving hate speeches, Justice Lodha said: “India is a country of 128 crore people and all should be allowed to express their opinion. Freedom of speech is a precious right given by the Constitution. Don't suggest steps to restrict it.”

“Let all shades of opinion come and people will decide,” Justice Lodha said.

“Freedom of speech and expression is always subject to reasonable restrictions. Instead of protecting the freedom of speech, you are seeking a direction to curb it,” Justice Lodha asked.

Cannot ban opinion polls, says EC

The Election Commission has expressed its inability to impose a blanket ban on opinion polls.

Answering a question at a news conference here, Chief Election Commissioner V.S. Sampath said, “We never hesitate to use powers that we can. However, the issue of opinion polls is to be dealt with by the lawmakers. They have the legislative competence.”

Under the current law, the Election Commission has the powers to ban conduct of opinion polls only 48 hours prior to voting as the lawmakers are yet to take a call on a proposal by the Commission for a blanket ban on the exercise.

The issue of banning opinion polls has been in discussion for nearly a decade now. In 2004, the EC sought a provision in the law for prohibiting publishing and dissemin-ation of opinion poll results from the date of notification of an election. The EC had made this recommendation after political parties unanimously spoke in favour of such a move.

In November last year, an all-party meeting convened by the government on the EC proposal had spoken out against opinion polls. Attorney General G.E. Vahanvati, whose views were sought by the Law Ministry, had also supported this proposal.

Of the 15 national and State parties, which sent in their views on the issue, only the BJP was against any restriction on the “conduct or dissem-ination” of the results of opinion polls.

The BJP’s contention was that any such restriction would “fall in the realm of a restriction on the Fundamental Right to Freedom and Expression guaranteed under Article 19(1) (a) of the Constitution.”

GUESSING GAME

Why opinion polls are often wide of the mark

Poor Don’t Always Reveal Their Mind, Middle Class Vocal

Atul Thakur | TIG 

New Delhi: Going by the media coverage and the results of various opinion polls, it might appear that Narendra Modi’s ascent to power in Delhi is almost certain. But an analysis of past five general elections shows that opinion polls tend to overestimate BJP, underestimate Congress and at times go very wrong in assessing regional and smaller parties. 
    For instance, in 2009, pollsters predicted a near neck-and-neck fi ght between Congress-led UPA and BJPheaded NDA. It was a general consensus among various poll pundits that although UPA had an edge over NDA, the latter could not be written off. If we take the minimum and the maximum seat forecast of opinion polls, conducted just before the elections, it works out that UPA was supposed to get between 201 and 235 seats while 
the corresponding numbers for NDA was between 165 and 186 seats. The individual forecast for India’s two largest parties ranged between 146 and 155 for Congress and from 137 to 147 for BJP. 
    The actual results surprised everyone—pollsters, media and parties. UPA got 262 seats while NDA was confined to just 157. Party-level predictions also went completely wrong—Congress went ahead to win 206 seats while BJP could manage to bag just 116 Lok Sabha seats. 
    For BJP, the 2009 results was perhaps a scaled-down replica of the 2004 debacle. After the good showing in assembly elections in four states, the NDA government decided to go for early polls. Initial opinion polls suggested that NDA was going to sweep the elections. According to poll results of India Today-ORG Marg, published in February 2004, NDA was supposed to get 330-340 seats while Congress and allies were to be confined to 105-115. 
    Later the predictions were revised to 260-286 for NDA and 154-180 for Congress and allies. Then PM Atal Bihari Vajpayee became so confident by what the opinion polls had to say that in an April 17 rally at Nagpur (three days before the elections), he expressed his discomfort with the coalition government and said, “My worry now is, if we are again saddled with a 22-party coalition... such a situation is better avoided.” Perhaps he was indicating that it would be easier to govern the country if his party secured a majority. The results, however, shocked BJP as NDA was reduced to 185 seats, while Congress and allies won in 217 constituencies. 
    In the 1999 elections as well, the initial poll predictions suggested that NDA would emerge a clear winner. An opinion poll conducted by DRS for TOI for the August 5-9 period—about a month before the elections—suggested that NDA would get 332 seats while Congress and allies would manage only 138. India Today-Insight opinion poll also confi rmed TOI’s prediction, giving 322-336 seats to NDA and 132-146 to Congress and allies. Both opinion polls suggested that BJP and Congress would increase their individual tally by cutting into the votes of regional parties. 
    The newspapers were full of stories about a “Vajpayee wave”, which was the focus of BJP’s election campaign. A news report based on TNS MODE survey even suggested that Sushma Swaraj was going to beat Sonia Gandhi in Bellary. The estimates were later revised to 279-336 for NDA and 132-162 for Congress and allies—much closer to the actual results. Swaraj, however, lost from Bellary and state parties won 162 seats. 
    Opinion polls for 1998 and 1996 elections were, however, closer to the actual results. 
    Why do opinion polls tend to favour a particular coalition while underplaying others? First, unlike Western countries, India’s population is not homogeneous—caste, religion and region play an important factor in elections. Also, people, particularly from the weaker section of society, are reluctant to reveal which party they are going to vote. BJP might be getting overplayed because the main support base of the party is the middle class—a section which is not afraid of any post-election harassment and hence they are vocal in sharing their views. On the contrary, key voters of other parties are from vulnerable sections of society and hence they are afraid to share their opinion. 
    Experts also argue that opinion polls work much better in bipolar elections. In India, where elections are multi-cornered, it is possible that pollsters fail to estimate the strength of regional parties.