Iraqi forces dig in outside Baghdad
Soldiers armed with shovels are digging in just 25 km. north of Baghdad as others man new checkpoints, bolstering the Iraqi capital’s defences against a militant assault.
A major militant offensive launched on Monday, spearheaded by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS) group but also involving supporters of executed dictator Saddam Hussein, has overrun a large chunk of northern and north-central Iraq.
The advance swept to within less than 100 km. of the capital, raising fears among residents that the city itself would be next, though militants have since been pushed back by security forces in areas farther north, making an assault on Baghdad appear less likely.
ISIS spokesman Abu Mohammed al-Adnani has vowed its fighters would press on to Baghdad and Karbala, a city southwest of the capital that is considered one of the holiest sites in Shia Islam.
Top Shia cleric Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani on Friday urged Iraqis to take up arms against the Sunni militants marching on the city.
Trucks carrying hundreds of volunteers were among a large number of vehicles passing through the key main checkpoint north of Baghdad on Saturday, as security forces carried out spot checks.
The volunteers sang patriotic songs as they were driven to a nearby training centre.
Security forces performed poorly when the militant onslaught was unleashed, but they now appear to be recovering from the initial shock and have begun to regain ground.
They are regrouping despite scenes of disarray in the early days of the offensive, when soldiers shed their uniforms for civilian clothes and abandoned weapons and other equipment.
On Friday, security forces retook areas north of the capital that were among the closest militants got to Baghdad, officers said.
Regular security forces are bolstered by militiamen in preparing to defend the capital.
“Our forces stand as one rank beside the army and the police,” said Hussein al-Tamimi, a local leader of the Sahwa militia forces, which fought alongside American troops against militants in previous years.
“Where are they?” he asked of the militants. “We are waiting for them and looking for them. We want them to come so we can finish them.”
Dhia Ali al-Tamimi, a local tribal leader, also spoke out in support of the security forces, telling AFP that “everyone must protect the land and the state.” — AFP
Turning to Iran
The rapid advance across Iraq by Islamic State in the Levant (ISIL), the Syria-based extreme Sunni militia, to the point where its forces are only 60 km from Baghdad, has caused a serious humanitarian crisis and reopened several questions that are central to the future of West Asia. Over half a million people have fled Iraq’s western province, Anbar, for the northeastern province of Kurdistan; the refugees need food and shelter urgently, and the United Nations High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR) is already involved. In addition, images apparently showing ISIL summarily executing captured Iraqi soldiers have been posted online; the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees, Navi Pillay, states that if confirmed the executions would constitute war crimes. Secondly, ISIL has caused panic in the Iraqi army, sections of which have fled leaving behind tanks and other heavy weaponry. Thirdly, the United States and the United Kingdom, which led the illegal invasion of Iraq in 2003, now face contradictions they themselves have created.
A key reason for this situation is that in 2003 the invaders abolished Iraq’s public and civic institutions, in the deluded belief that all Iraqi officials were fanatical Saddam Hussein followers. Almost immediately, extreme Sunni and Shia leaders started a savage civil war, dividing Iraqi society and enabling al-Qaeda to establish a powerful presence where it previously had none. Matters were then exacerbated by Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki’s sectarianism; he sacked 700,000 Sunnis from the military and banned substantial numbers of Sunnis from civilian public-service posts. Widespread corruption and brutality on the part of government militias have made things even worse; some Mosul residents say that ISIL has brought renewed stability and an end to fighting, bomb explosions, and looting. Moreover, two allies, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, have been funding and possibly arming ISIL with a view to overthrowing Syrian President Bashar al-Assad; Riyadh and Doha might also seek to remove Mr. al Maliki’s Shia-dominated government. Above all, the British and American lies about Saddam Hussein’s weapons of mass destruction in 2003 now mean military intervention will not be tolerated by the public in either country. President Barack Obama is sending 275 troops to protect U.S. embassy staff in Baghdad, but he is on a slippery slope. As their entire political strategy towards the region collapses, and despite the harm done to Iran by western sanctions, Washington and London are finally seeking Iran’s help. They are doing so for instrumental reasons, but a constructive response from Tehran could be an immense contribution to regional peace.
India faces the Iraq test
The taking into custody of 40 Indians, drawn into the crossfire of a bitter power struggle in Iraq between an assertive but marginalised Sunni minority and the government led by President Nouri al-Maliki, has brought into focus the Narendra Modi government’s crisis management skills. The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), a jihadi group, is apparently behind the detention and relocation of the workers, who are from Punjab, into a cotton warehouse in the vicinity of Mosul — Iraq’s second largest city that is an ethnically divided demographic powder keg. Yet, there are indications that Sunni tribesmen, who may not share the ISIS’s virulent extremist ideology but are in a tactical embrace with it in order to counter the government of Mr. Nouri al-Maliki, which has Shia overtones, are holding the victims. The detentions, along with the entrapment of 46 nurses in a Tikrit hospital, is cause for deep anxiety; the crisis has dwarfed the 2004 abduction and release of three Indian truck drivers near Baghdad. Apart from India, countries such as China and Turkey, whose nationals have been detained in large numbers, are experiencing the pain. The blowback of the incident has hit the government hard, persuading External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj to meet the distraught families of the victims, who have no option but to seek solace from the Central government.
The government is facing a complex crisis that has to be tackled at multiple levels. In order to get the hostages released, New Delhi is apparently using the channels of the Iraqi Red Crescent to communicate with the militants. Its immediate worry is to ensure safe passage that would allow the evacuation of the workers from their present locations to the Kurdish-dominated Erbil airport, which is much safer, geographically and otherwise, than the battle-hit route to Baghdad heading towards the south. But the government has to worry beyond the immediate, for a crisis of much larger proportions can emerge should fighting spill into the oil-rich south, where a large proportion of the 20,000 Indians in Iraq live. The danger of an escalation of regional upheavals is real if Iran, in supporting the Shia-dominated south, gets embroiled in the crisis — possibly creating a spiral of tensions with rival Saudi Arabia. Finally, New Delhi has also to be prepared for the internationalisation of the events in Iraq, as well as a sharp and painful spurt in oil prices, especially if the United States chooses to launch air strikes against opposition strongholds. For this could raise concerns in Russia and China that have been reacting vigorously to events in West Asia, especially Syria, in the aftermath of the 2011 fall of Qadhafi in Libya.
A time for Arab, Asian statesmanship
On June 10, the world awoke to the disquieting news that a shadowy jihadi group, till then known for its violent activity in the Syrian conflict, had captured Iraq’s premier town of Mosul. After this, over the next few days, there were reports of the capture of other towns — Baiji, Tikrit, and then north to Tal Afar on the Syrian border — so that within a week, the jihadis seemed to be grouping just outside Baghdad. The group was identified as ISIS — the “Islamic State of Iraq and [Greater] Syria,” ajihadi grouping affiliated with al-Qaeda.
According to observers, at least since 2012, ISIS has functioned more as a militia organised on military lines than as a terrorist organisation. Instead of random acts of violence against soft targets, ISIS cadres now launch “strategic attacks” to augment their food, weaponry and cash resources. While they avoid pitched battles, they were successful in Iraq in recent weeks because the Iraqi Army simply melted away in the face of their assault. In Mosul, they released Sunni prisoners, gained huge arms caches, and also got over $400 million from local banks and the treasury.
The retreat of Iraq
How did Iraq, particularly its armed forces, reach this pathetic state? The origins of the current situation lie in the U.S.-led military assault on Iraq which destroyed the country’s infrastructure, and in the immediate aftermath of the occupation when the country’s two principal institutions were systematically destroyed, i.e., the disbanding of the Iraqi Army and the prohibiting of the employment of Baath Party members. The situation has further deteriorated during the eight-year rule of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, who, in the words of Fawaz Gerges, “delivered neither reconciliation nor security and prosperity,” but favoured a narrow and exclusivist agenda that aggravated the country’s sectarian and ideological divide, leaving the Sunnis marginalised and increasingly hostile to his government.
The Iraqi forces gave such a poor account of themselves because Mr. Maliki destroyed Iraq’s non-sectarian professional forces — non-Shias were purged and a poorly trained Shia element with low morale was left to face the ISIS onslaught. There was a further betrayal in that, during the ISIS attacks, the soldiers found that their military and political leaders had disappeared from the scene; hence, the soldiers saw no reason to fight ISIS zealots.
The first reaction of several commentators, Arab and western, is to see in ISIS’ successes straddling Syria and Iraq as the end of the Sykes-Picot territorial arrangements, commencing with the blurring of the Syria-Iraq border and the disintegration of Iraq. Indeed, several observers believe that the break-up has already happened: ISIS, a Sunni coalition, controls the Sunni-dominated provinces of the west and north, with the Maliki-led Shia government in Baghdad ruling only the primarily Shia territories southwards from Baghdad to Basrah. In the meantime, taking advantage of ISIS attacks and the failure of the Iraqi Army to take a stand, Kurdish forces, better trained and disciplined, have moved quickly to occupy Kirkuk, thus consolidating the quasi-independence of the Kurdish region.
India’s concerns
India’s immediate concern is for the security and safe return of its nationals who are stranded in different cities of Iraq under ISIS occupation. Ten years ago, when three Indian drivers had been kidnapped in Fallujah, the government had sent a team of diplomats to negotiate their release. While a similar team should go to Baghdad now, it will face far greater challenges. In 2004, Iraq was under U.S. occupation, while the kidnappers used to take hostages for ransom to augment their resources to fight the Americans. Now, the ground situation is quite different. There is a government in Baghdad, but it is despised by ISIS, a sentiment that is fully reciprocated. Again, ISIS is headed by jihadi zealots who are not known to negotiate in combat situations. Finally, ISIS seems to be flush with funds and does not need ransom to sustain itself. The only silver lining is that ISIS is effectively a coalition of anti-Maliki elements, including Baathists, tribal leaders and professionals, who are not jihadi zealots. They may still have some goodwill for India from old times. Again, so far, the ISIS leadership has also projected a moderate approach, though images of mass executions have not been particularly reassuring.
Besides the safety of its citizens, India has reason to be concerned about energy supplies. With great difficulty, Iraq has restored its oil production after the war, so that it now produces 3.5 million barrels a day (mbd), of which 2.8 mbd is exported. The bulk of the production, 2.5 mbd, comes from oilfields in the south which are not under threat. As of now, exports are expected to continue, a happy situation for India for whom Iraq is the second largest supplier.
But, serious concerns remain. First, ISIS has occupied Mosul and is fighting for the control of the Baiji refinery after taking the Baiji town. The broad Mosul area includes oil reserves of about 24 billion barrels, including the rich Kirkuk field which produces 4,00,000 barrels per day. Kurdish forces have occupied Kirkuk and safeguard its production. This production however will take place outside federal control and will boost the Kurdish drive for full independence. Again, if the Baiji refinery were to come under ISIS control, Iraq would lose refined products of about 3,10,000 b/d. Overall, the energy scenario is grim and India will have to locate other sources in case the situation deteriorates further. In the meantime, the fighting in Iraq has already led to oil price increases, which will have an adverse impact on the Indian budgetary situation.
Shedding identities
Given the dramatic success of ISIS in Iraq, the continuing stalemate in Syria and the ongoing political crisis in Baghdad, it is difficult to make confident prognoses. Some tentative thoughts are offered at this stage.
First, it is unlikely that the Sykes-Picot order will be extinguished any time soon. Conflicts in Syria and Iraq will continue, but national borders are likely to be retained. The Iraqi Kurds will assert increasing degrees of autonomy and even obtain greater financial freedom from oil exports, but they will not seek to aggravate the geopolitical scenario by declaring formal independence.
Second, there is a broad consensus on the causes of the present crisis and the way forward for the country: simply stated, Mr. Maliki’s sectarian approach has to be replaced by a broad-based government that provides the space and the opportunity for the country’s diverse population. Perhaps, the serious challenge posed by ISIS will concentrate the minds of Iraq’s quarrelling and short-sighted politicians and force the emergence of a government of national unity. The appeal of Grand Ayatollah al-Sistani for all Iraqis to shed sectarian and ethnic identities and come together to save the nation is a pointer to the way forward.
Third, while there will be consultations between the U.S. and Iran, and possibly some low-key air strikes (not likely to be particularly useful), neither of them will intervene militarily in the country unless Shia shrines are directly threatened or it is feared that Baghdad is likely to be overrun. Given the opposition of Iran, Turkey and the U.S., it is unlikely that ISIS will attempt to take Baghdad.
Finally, Saudi Arabia and its Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) partners are in a painful dilemma. There is deep mutual animosity between them and ISIS, and ISIS’ successes in Iraq threaten their security. But, the countries are also wary about the Shia upsurge in Iraq, the improving U.S.-Iran engagement, and the likelihood of an Iranian intervention to maintain Shia primacy in the country. This dilemma can only be resolved by Saudi Arabia and Iran giving up their sectarian approach to regional affairs and engaging directly to address issues of regional security. Only through direct dialogue can they look at the issues of Iraq, Syria, the jihadi challenge, and the burgeoning sectarianism, all of which threaten to destroy the regional order. Statesmanship is called for not only in Baghdad but also in Tehran and Riyadh, otherwise all of West Asia will be up in flames fuelled by jihadi and sectarian violence.
This is also an opportunity for Asian countries, such as India, China, Japan and Korea, that have such high stakes in regional stability, to consult with one another and promote dialogue and confidence-building measures in the Gulf. As the U.S. retreats from military interventions, Asian nations should assume responsibility for their own security.
Iraq rebels widen reach, seize key areas
Baghdad
Another Town, 2 Strategic Border Crossings To Jordan And Syria Captured
Iraqi military officials said that Sunni militants have captured two border crossings, one with Jordan and another with Syria, as they press on with their offensive in one of Iraq’s most restive regions.The officials said the militants on Sunday captured the Turaibil crossing with Jordan and the al-Walid crossing with Syria after government forces there pulled out.
The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the media.
The capture of the two follows the fall since Friday of the towns of Qaim, Rawah, Anah and Rutba, all of which are in the Sunni Anbar province where militants of the ISIS have since January controlled the city of Fallujah and parts of the provincial capital Ramadi.
Sunni militants have seized another town in Iraq’s western Anbar province, the
fourth to fall in two days, officials said on Sunday.The militants captured Rutba, about 150km east of the Jordanian border, on Saturday, the officials said. Residents were on Sunday negotiating with the militants to leave after an army unit on the town’s outskirts threatened to start shelling.
The towns of Qaim, Rawah, Anah and Rutba are the first seized in the mainly Sunni Anbar province since fighters from the ISIS and their allies overran the city of Fallujah and parts of the provincial capital of Ramadi earlier this year.
The capture of Rawah on the Euphrates River and the nearby town of Anah appeared to be part of a march toward a key dam in the city of Haditha, the destruction of which would damage the country’s electrical grid and cause major flooding.
Taking Rutba gives the insurgents control over the fi
nal stretch of a major highway to neighbouring Jordan, a key artery for passengers and goods that has been infrequently used for months because of deteriorating secu rity. Iraqi military officials said that more than 2,000 troops were quickly dispatched to the site of the dam to protect it.Chief military spokes
man, Lt general Qassim alMoussawi, acknowledged the fall of the Anbar towns, and said that the government forces had made a tactical retreat and planned to retake them. AP
Baghdad
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Another Town, 2 Strategic Border Crossings To Jordan And Syria Captured
Iraqi military officials said that Sunni militants have captured two border crossings, one with Jordan and another with Syria, as they press on with their offensive in one of Iraq’s most restive regions.The officials said the militants on Sunday captured the Turaibil crossing with Jordan and the al-Walid crossing with Syria after government forces there pulled out.
The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the media.
The capture of the two follows the fall since Friday of the towns of Qaim, Rawah, Anah and Rutba, all of which are in the Sunni Anbar province where militants of the ISIS have since January controlled the city of Fallujah and parts of the provincial capital Ramadi.
Sunni militants have seized another town in Iraq’s western Anbar province, the
fourth to fall in two days, officials said on Sunday.The militants captured Rutba, about 150km east of the Jordanian border, on Saturday, the officials said. Residents were on Sunday negotiating with the militants to leave after an army unit on the town’s outskirts threatened to start shelling.
The towns of Qaim, Rawah, Anah and Rutba are the first seized in the mainly Sunni Anbar province since fighters from the ISIS and their allies overran the city of Fallujah and parts of the provincial capital of Ramadi earlier this year.
The capture of Rawah on the Euphrates River and the nearby town of Anah appeared to be part of a march toward a key dam in the city of Haditha, the destruction of which would damage the country’s electrical grid and cause major flooding.
Taking Rutba gives the insurgents control over the fi
nal stretch of a major highway to neighbouring Jordan, a key artery for passengers and goods that has been infrequently used for months because of deteriorating secu rity. Iraqi military officials said that more than 2,000 troops were quickly dispatched to the site of the dam to protect it.Chief military spokes
man, Lt general Qassim alMoussawi, acknowledged the fall of the Anbar towns, and said that the government forces had made a tactical retreat and planned to retake them. AP
The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the media.
The capture of the two follows the fall since Friday of the towns of Qaim, Rawah, Anah and Rutba, all of which are in the Sunni Anbar province where militants of the ISIS have since January controlled the city of Fallujah and parts of the provincial capital Ramadi.
Sunni militants have seized another town in Iraq’s western Anbar province, the
fourth to fall in two days, officials said on Sunday.The militants captured Rutba, about 150km east of the Jordanian border, on Saturday, the officials said. Residents were on Sunday negotiating with the militants to leave after an army unit on the town’s outskirts threatened to start shelling.
The towns of Qaim, Rawah, Anah and Rutba are the first seized in the mainly Sunni Anbar province since fighters from the ISIS and their allies overran the city of Fallujah and parts of the provincial capital of Ramadi earlier this year.
The capture of Rawah on the Euphrates River and the nearby town of Anah appeared to be part of a march toward a key dam in the city of Haditha, the destruction of which would damage the country’s electrical grid and cause major flooding.
Taking Rutba gives the insurgents control over the fi
nal stretch of a major highway to neighbouring Jordan, a key artery for passengers and goods that has been infrequently used for months because of deteriorating secu rity. Iraqi military officials said that more than 2,000 troops were quickly dispatched to the site of the dam to protect it.Chief military spokes
man, Lt general Qassim alMoussawi, acknowledged the fall of the Anbar towns, and said that the government forces had made a tactical retreat and planned to retake them. AP
LEARNING WITH THE TIMES - AS IRAQ BURNS, WORLD FEELS THE HEAT
Subodh Varma
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TNN
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A READER'S GUIDE TO THE LATEST MIDDLE EAST CRISIS
This is largely a battle between the three major groups of people in Iraq Shias, Sunnis and Kurds.Shias and Sunnis are Islam's major sects. Kurds are Sunnis but they're a different ethnic group from the rest of Iraqis who are of rest of Iraqis who are of Arabic origin. The Kurds live in northern Iraq in a semi-autonomous region.
Sunnis occupy the central provinces and Shias the south. The populations in termingle. Saddam Hus sein was Sunni and his Baath Party Sunni-dominated. This led to discrimination against Shias and discontent.
Saddam's was a secular regime. There was none of the present-day sectarian blood-letting. The sectarian fault lines became sharp during US's eight-year Iraq occupation during 2003-2011. The occupation forces armed both sides to control the country and divert the anti-occupation violence. The period 2006 to 2008 saw bloodshed and destruction of religious structures by both sides; many cities including Baghdad witnessed ethnic cleansing.
A Shia dominated government was set up in Baghdad which further worsened discrimination against Sunnis.
Extremist group Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) exploited this discontent and took over large parts of central Iraq, threatening Baghdad.
What's the connection with oil?
Oil is the major reason behind international involvement in Iraq, which has the world's fifth-largest reserves and is the eighth-largest producer. Oil was discovered in Iraq in 1919 and the British took control of the region, demarcated borders to suit their interests and installed a pliant ruler. In 1963, the Baath Party took over and, drawing upon oil revenues built a militarily-strong state, nationalizing the oil industry. Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait in 1991 and the US hit back defeating Iraq in the first Gulf War. They imposed a blockade preventing oil exports. After the second US invasion in 2003, Western companies got oil exploration and extraction contracts in Iraq. Oilfields are largely in the south, the Kurd areas have about 17% of reserves. Years of war had limited Iraq's oil production. Of late, it touched 3.3 billion barrels per day, almost the same as in prewar times. With the current instability , there are fears that production will be hit and global prices will shoot up.
Why are neighbours getting into the conflict?
Saddam's overthrow in 2003 and his execution opened up realignments in the regional power play . Baghdad's Shia government became a natural friend of Iran which was hostile to Saddam and fought a 10-year war with Iraq in the 1980s. Although Iran was anti-US, a Shia ruler in Baghdad was helpful to Iran, isolated by Western sanctions. Saudi Arabia and Qatar are Sunni monarchies with strong fundamentalist links. Iran and others allege that they've been backing Sunni extremists in Syria and Iraq. Syria became another battleground for rival powers behind the same Shia-Sunni screen Syria's ruler Assad is Alawaite, a Shia subgroup; opposition to him comes from Sunni rebels backed by regional Sunni powers and the West. As civil war progressed, Sunni rebels were increasingly taken over by fanatics, including ISIS. Unable to dislodge Assad but flush with arms and fighters, ISIS expanded into Iraq which shares a border with Syria.
What could happen?
With the takeover of Iraqi cities like Mosul and the drive towards Baghdad, the region could go up in flames. Iran is worried its friend, Iraqi PM Maliki, may be removed and US may again get involved in Iraq. Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States and Turkey are jittery that ISIS will become their Frankenstein's Monster, threatening the region's fragile relations. Turkey and Iran are worried about Kurds who live in these countries too and may rekindle their dream of a united Kurdistan stretching from Turkey to Afghanistan.
Lebanon's Shia militant group Hezbollah is worried over losing Iranian support. With Palestinian peace talks collapsing and Israeli strikes in Gaza and Syria, tension threatens to spill over into the explosive Israel-Palestine conflict. Not too far to the east, Taliban is knocking on the doors of Kabul.
A demoralized US occupation force awaits evacuation. An arc of instability is fast developing from Afghanistan, through Iraq and Syria, to Israel, and beyond, to Egypt and Libya. The US may decide to get militarily involved, despite strong opposition. It's an incendiary situation.
Sunnis occupy the central provinces and Shias the south. The populations in termingle. Saddam Hus sein was Sunni and his Baath Party Sunni-dominated. This led to discrimination against Shias and discontent.
Saddam's was a secular regime. There was none of the present-day sectarian blood-letting. The sectarian fault lines became sharp during US's eight-year Iraq occupation during 2003-2011. The occupation forces armed both sides to control the country and divert the anti-occupation violence. The period 2006 to 2008 saw bloodshed and destruction of religious structures by both sides; many cities including Baghdad witnessed ethnic cleansing.
A Shia dominated government was set up in Baghdad which further worsened discrimination against Sunnis.
Extremist group Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) exploited this discontent and took over large parts of central Iraq, threatening Baghdad.
What's the connection with oil?
Oil is the major reason behind international involvement in Iraq, which has the world's fifth-largest reserves and is the eighth-largest producer. Oil was discovered in Iraq in 1919 and the British took control of the region, demarcated borders to suit their interests and installed a pliant ruler. In 1963, the Baath Party took over and, drawing upon oil revenues built a militarily-strong state, nationalizing the oil industry. Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait in 1991 and the US hit back defeating Iraq in the first Gulf War. They imposed a blockade preventing oil exports. After the second US invasion in 2003, Western companies got oil exploration and extraction contracts in Iraq. Oilfields are largely in the south, the Kurd areas have about 17% of reserves. Years of war had limited Iraq's oil production. Of late, it touched 3.3 billion barrels per day, almost the same as in prewar times. With the current instability , there are fears that production will be hit and global prices will shoot up.
Why are neighbours getting into the conflict?
Saddam's overthrow in 2003 and his execution opened up realignments in the regional power play . Baghdad's Shia government became a natural friend of Iran which was hostile to Saddam and fought a 10-year war with Iraq in the 1980s. Although Iran was anti-US, a Shia ruler in Baghdad was helpful to Iran, isolated by Western sanctions. Saudi Arabia and Qatar are Sunni monarchies with strong fundamentalist links. Iran and others allege that they've been backing Sunni extremists in Syria and Iraq. Syria became another battleground for rival powers behind the same Shia-Sunni screen Syria's ruler Assad is Alawaite, a Shia subgroup; opposition to him comes from Sunni rebels backed by regional Sunni powers and the West. As civil war progressed, Sunni rebels were increasingly taken over by fanatics, including ISIS. Unable to dislodge Assad but flush with arms and fighters, ISIS expanded into Iraq which shares a border with Syria.
What could happen?
With the takeover of Iraqi cities like Mosul and the drive towards Baghdad, the region could go up in flames. Iran is worried its friend, Iraqi PM Maliki, may be removed and US may again get involved in Iraq. Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States and Turkey are jittery that ISIS will become their Frankenstein's Monster, threatening the region's fragile relations. Turkey and Iran are worried about Kurds who live in these countries too and may rekindle their dream of a united Kurdistan stretching from Turkey to Afghanistan.
Lebanon's Shia militant group Hezbollah is worried over losing Iranian support. With Palestinian peace talks collapsing and Israeli strikes in Gaza and Syria, tension threatens to spill over into the explosive Israel-Palestine conflict. Not too far to the east, Taliban is knocking on the doors of Kabul.
A demoralized US occupation force awaits evacuation. An arc of instability is fast developing from Afghanistan, through Iraq and Syria, to Israel, and beyond, to Egypt and Libya. The US may decide to get militarily involved, despite strong opposition. It's an incendiary situation.
Jun 26 2014 : The Times of India (Delhi)
ISIS attacks air base, seizes oilfields
Militants attacked one of Iraq's largest air bases and seized control of several small oilfields on Wednesday as US special forces troops and intelligence analysts arrived to help Iraqi security forces counter a mounting Sunni insurgency .Prime Minister Nouri alMaliki, who is fighting for his job and is under international pressure to create a more inclusive government, said he supported starting the process of forming a new cabinet within a week.
In northern Iraq, the Sunni militants extended a twoweek advance that has been led by the hardline Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) but also includes an amalgam of other Sunni groups angered by Maliki's rule. A parliament session is planned within a week that will start the process of forming a new government based on the results of elections held in April. Maliki’s Shialed State of Law coalition won the most seats but needs support of other Shia groups, Sunnis and Kurds to build a government. Rear Admiral John Kirby, the Pentagon press secretary, said late on Tuesday that an initial group sent to establish an operations centre included intelligence analysts and logistics experts as well as special operations troops.Another 50 US military personnel working in the region are expected to arrive within the next few days to create four additional assessment teams, he said. Iraqi state television reported that Pentagon advisers met with Baghdad’s operations commander and agreed to set up a joint operation command. On Wednesday, militants overran the Ajeel oil site, 30 km (19 miles) east of Tikrit, which contains at least three small oilfields that produce 28,000 barrels per day, an engineer working at the field said. Ajeel is connected to two pipelines, one running to Turkey’s Ceyhan port and the other to the Baiji oil refinery, which remained a frontline early on Wednesday. Iraq Premier pushes two-pronged strategy
Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki conceded on Thursday that political measures were needed alongside military action to repel a Sunni insurgent offensive that has overrun swathes of Iraq and threatens to tear it apart.
His remarks came during a meeting with visiting British Foreign Secretary William Hague, who reiterated Western calls for Iraqi leaders to unite in the face of a militant onslaught that has killed more than 1,000 people and displaced more than half a million.
Powerful Shia cleric Moqtada al-Sadr meanwhile vowed to “shake the ground” under the feet of the advancing Sunni militants, risking ratcheting up already-high sectarian tensions.
“We should proceed in two parallel tracks,” Mr. Maliki told visiting British Foreign Secretary William Hague, according to a statement issued by the Premier’s office.
“The first one is work on the ground and military operations against terrorists and their gatherings,” he said.
“The second one is following up on the political process and holding a meeting of the Parliament [on time] and electing a head of Parliament and a President and forming the government.”
Mr. Maliki has thus far publicly focused on a military response to the two-week crisis, and his latest comments were his clearest yet regarding finding a political solution.
Earlier in an interview with the BBC, Mr. Maliki said the Syrian air force had carried out air strikes against militants on the Syrian side of the Al-Qaim border crossing.
He also said Iraq had purchased several used Sukhoi fighter jets from Belarus and Russia.
The Iraqi leader said that while Baghdad did not request the Syrian strikes, he “welcomed” any such move against militants led by the jihadist Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS).
The New York Times reported meanwhile that predominantly Shia Iran is flying surveillance drones over Iraq and sending military equipment to help Baghdad in its fight against the Sunni insurgents.
The Syrian strikes came after ISIS-led insurgents took control of the town of Al-Qaim on the Iraqi side of the frontier, providing them with a strategic route into conflict-hit Syria, where the jihadist group is also active.
Washington has urged Iraq’s fractious leaders to unite in the face of the militants, and Mr. Hague looked set to echo that message, saying in a statement that the “single most important factor that will determine whether or not Iraq overcomes this challenge is political unity.”
‘Mortal threat’
He described the ISIS-led offensive as a “mortal threat to the stability and territorial integrity of Iraq” and added that the group also poses a “direct threat to other countries in the region.”
Kurdish regional president Massud Barzani toured Kirkuk on Thursday, in his first visit since the takeover, to inspect Kurdish forces deployed to defend the city against the militants to its west and south.
Government forces have, however, fought off insurgent attacks on a major air base and a key western town, after earlier repelling assaults on Iraq’s biggest oil refinery.
And on Thursday, dozens of soldiers were helicoptered into the militant-held city of Tikrit, the first major counter-offensive on the city in several days. — AFP
Shifting Borders
A disintegrating Iraq would redraw Middle East's map and geopolitical alignments
With civil strife in Iraq showing no signs of abating, the political map of the Middle East looks headed for a serious reconfigura tion. Rebel fighters of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) have continued their onslaught against Iraqi government forces, capturing towns, oil sites and important infrastructure as part of their push towards Baghdad. ISIL now controls large swathes of northwestern and western Iraq including the border with Syria. Reportedly, a unit of the Syrian branch of al-Qaida has pledged loyalty to ISIL, strengthening the latter's ambition of establishing an Islamic caliphate spanning both countries.As things stand, Iraq is headed for a three-way split. The ongoing strife has allowed the Kurds in the country's north to strengthen their existing autonomy from Baghdad. And while ISIL's writ now runs in Sunni strongholds in Iraq's northern and central provinces, Shia-dominated, oil-rich areas in southern Iraq appear to be well fortified.
With the US cautious about any kind of military intervention, the three regions could become independent, leading to the creation of a new Arab Sunni state comprising ISIL-controlled areas. This would have serious implications for geopolitical alignments in the Middle East with one of two scenarios emerging. First, should the new Sunni Arab state continue to profess ISIL's radical ideology, an al-Qaida-inspired regime akin to Afghanistan's Taliban would take shape in one of the most sensitive regions of the world. This would spread the fires of Shia-Sunni conflict beyond Iraq and Syria and turn into a civil war within the Muslim world. Even if ISIL had Saudi Arabia's initial patronage, it would be a problem child for the Saudis as al-Qaida wants to destroy the Saudi monarchy. For India and the rest of the world that depend on Middle Eastern oil, a radical Sunni state would be a nightmare for energy markets as well as security. However, ISIL leads a broad coalition of Sunni forces. In the event of Iraq's break-up, should relatively moderate elements take control of the new Sunni Arab state, the situation would stabilise in the long run. The international community would do well to plan for such an eventuality , exploring the possibility of stationing UN peacekeepers in post-break-up Iraq. With Iraq's blundering PM Nouri al-Maliki refusing to accede to a national unity government, the US and Iran should work together to stabilise the region and deal with new sovereign entities that may emerge. 
Militants take Iraqi gas field town
Mansouriyat Al-Jabal Is Just An Hour Away From Baghdad
Militants took a town an hour from Baghdad that is home to four natural gasfields on Thursday, another gain by Sunni insurgents who have swiftly taken large areas to the north and west of the Iraqi capital.Iraq’s presidency said a session of parliament would be held on July 1, the first step to forming a new government that the international community hopes will be inclusive enough to undermine the insurgency.
The overnight offensive included Mansouriyat al-Jabal, home to the gas fields where foreign companies operate, security forces said. The fighting threatens to rupture the country two and a half years after the end of US occupation. The insurgents, led by the hardline ISIS but also including other Sunni groups blame PM Nouri al-Maliki for marginalizing their sect during eight years in power and he is fighting for his job. Three months after elections, a chorus of Iraqi and international voices have called for the government formation process to be started, including Iraqi’s most influential Shia Grand Ayatollah Ali alSistani. The presidency issued a decree on Thursday for a parliament session on July 1, state television said. Parliament will then have 30 days to name a president and 15 days after that to name a prime minister although the process has been delayed in the past, taking nine months to seat the government in 2010. Maliki has dismissed the call of mainly Sunni political and religious figures, some with links to armed groups fighting Maliki, for a “national salvation government” that would choose figures to lead the country and, in effect, bypass the election.Northern Iraq’s Mosul fell to Sunni insurgents on June 10 and took Tikrit city two days later. Kurdish forces moved into Kirkuk on June 11 and now control the oil city. Sunni fighters want to form an Islamic Caliphate from the Mediterra nean Sea to Iran. They control a border post with Syria and have stolen US-made weapons from Iraqi forces. Secretary of state John Kerry pressed Iraqi officials to form an “inclusive” government during a visit this week and urged leaders of the autonomous Kurdish region to stand with Baghdad against the onslaught.The United Nations has said that more than 1,000 people, mainly civilians, have been killed during the Sunni insurgents' advance in Iraq.The figure includes unarmed government troops machine gunned in mass graves by insurgents, as well as several reported incidents of prisoners killed in their cells by retreating government forces. In addition to the bloodshed, close to a million people have been displaced in Iraq this year. Amin Awad, director of Middle East and North Africa bureau for the UN refugee agency , called Iraq on Wednesday “a land of displacement“. Forces launch copter assault in ISIS-held Tikrit raqi security forces launched a I helicopter-borne assault on Thursday on the militant-held city of Tikrit, seizing control of its strategically located university, officials said. Dozens of security forces members flew in by helicopter and clashed with the Sunni militants before seizing the university, Salaheddin province governor Ahmed Abdullah Juburi said. A senior army officer said the university takeover was an important step in retaking Tikrit, the hometown of executed dictator Saddam Hussein, which was seized by Sunni Arab militants on June 11. AFP Hundreds of villagers flee as jihadis advance in north undreds of Iraqi villagers fleeing advances H by Sunni militants crowded at a checkpoint on the edge of the country's Kurdish-controlled territory on Thursday seeking shelter in the relative safety of the self-rule region, as Britain's top diplomat arrived in Baghdad to urge the country's leaders to unite against the insurgent threat. British foreign secretary William Hague's trip follows a visit by US secretary of state John Kerry, who earlier this week delivered a similar message and warned that Washington is prepared to take military action even if Baghdad delays political reforms. AP Kurdish leadership calls for better India ties
The Kurdistan Democratic Party hopes to deepen political and economic ties with India, a top leader of the semi-independent region’s ruling party has told The Hindu . “The reality,” Hemin Hawrani, in charge of the KDP’s international relations wing, said “is that the old Iraq is dead. In the future, there may be a confederation between a Kurdish state, a Sunni state, and a Shia state, or a Partition — but we have to move forward now, and see India as an important partner.”
India has been purchasing Kurdish crude sold through Turkish companies, local media reported here last week — a move which could potentially raise hackles in Baghdad, which has long argued the region cannot independently trade oil. There is, however, little diplomatic contact between the semi-independent region and India.
“There are thousands of Indian workers in Kurdistan,” Mr. Hawrani said, “and there are many Kurds studying in India, or seeking medical treatment there. We’d like to welcome many more Indian companies to Kurdistan, and to see an Indian consulate in Erbil.”
Mr. Hawrani’s remarks come as Kurdistan, capitalising on the collapse of Iraq’s national army, has pushed forward to take control of territories it has long claimed — key among them, the oilfields of Kirkuk.
Iraqi Kurdistan president Masoud Barzani — the patriarch of the KDP — has called for the country to seize the opportunity and push for full independence.
“Even without Kirkuk,” Mr. Hawrani said, “we have the ninth-largest proven oil reserves in the world, and plan to significantly boost production through the next five years. We believe we have a real contribution to make to India’s energy security.”
“The challenge before us,” Mr. Hawrani said, “is to sustain the 10 per cent-plus growth we’ve registered, the fastest in the region, despite all the wars raging around us. The worst-case scenario for us is that we have an Islamist-run state to our west, and a civil war to our south — but I think we’ve demonstrated this month that we can take care of our borders, and be a force for stability.”
Every fifth resident of Iraqi Kurdistan, Mr. Hawrani added, was now a refugee from Syria or elsewhere in Iraq. “My brother,” he said, laughing, “has two neighbours who have moved here from Bagdhad, a Shia family and a Sunni family, both of whom fled their neighbourhoods after threats from the other community.”
“For the past ten years,” Mr. Hawrani said, “we tried federalism, but instead we got growing centralisation, incompetence and corruption. Look at the reality: we’re a new nation, but only 2.8 per cent of our population live on under $1 a day, while 28 per cent of southern Iraq is below that poverty line.”
Baghdad shut off funding to Kurdistan in February, after a bruising row over the sharing of national oil revenues.
Maliki offers amnesty
AFP reports:
Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki offered a general amnesty on Wednesday in a rare conciliatory move to undercut support for militants.
Mr. Maliki’s surprise move, made in his weekly televised address, appeared to be a bid to split the broad alliance of jihadists, loyalists of executed dictator Saddam Hussein and anti-government tribes.
“I announce the provision of amnesty for all tribes and all people who were involved in actions against the state” but who now “return to their senses,” excluding those involved in killings, Mr. Maliki said.
It was not immediately clear how many people the amnesty could affect, but analysts have said some form of political reconciliation will be necessary.
Iraq, Syria, and the clueless American
The crisis could set all of West Asia ablaze and even lead to a mini World War
 Volunteers, who have joined the Iraqi Army to fight against predominantly Sunni militants (ISIS), carry weapons and the Iraqi flag during a parade in the streets in Baghdad’s Sadr city on 14 June 2014. Photo: Reuters
Let’s start with a listing of the contradictions and crazy alignments in what is going on right now in West Asia.
• The US and Iran have been sworn enemies since 1979. In fact, the last season of the extremely popular American TV serial Homelandended with the CIA assassinating the head of Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards.
• In the civil war in Iraq, both the US and Iran back the Shia-dominated Nouri al-Maliki government against the ultra-fundamentalist Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), an offshoot of the al Qaeda.
• In the civil war in Syria, Iran backs and supplies arms to theBashar al-Assad regime, while the US backs and supplies arms to the rebels, who are now led by the ISIS.
• The US wants Iran’s assistance to save Iraq from the ISIS.
• The US and Saudi Arabia have been allies for decades, and Saudi Arabia strongly wants to contain Iran’s influence in the region.
• Saudi Arabia quite possibly provided at least the initial funding for the ISIS.
• But now Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf monarchies consider the ISIS too extremist and a potential threat.
• The ISIS believes that the Gulf monarchies are effete, corrupt and not Islamic enough, and their overthrow will be part of its long-term goals.
• The Baghdad government is at odds with the Kurds who want full independence.
• But the Baghdad government and the Kurds are cooperating against the ISIS-Sunni uprising in Iraq.
• Turkey is deeply suspicious that if the Kurds manage to free themselves from Baghdad’s control, they would want a chunk of Turkey too, to fulfil their dream of Kurdistan.
• The Kurds and Turkey back the ISIS-Sunni uprising in Syria.
Makes sense? Well, that’s the way it is, and much of it is sheer American folly. All the misconceived and delusional strategies of theGeorge W. Bush administration are now bearing terrifyingly toxic fruit. Iraq has surely been the most gigantic blunder of US foreign policy ever. Vietnam pales in comparison. This one could set entire West Asia ablaze—from Lebanon through Syria, Iraq and Jordan to the Persian Gulf—and lead even to a mini World War.
Iran will certainly enter battle, if it hasn’t already (reports are ambiguous till now), and Turkey could be drawn in also. Then, of course there’s Israel. The success of the Sunni army of the al Qaeda-proxy ISIS could see a new Chechen insurgency in Russia (many of the ISIS’ fighters are from Chechnya), and definitely reinvigorate the al Qaeda from Afghanistan to Indonesia.
According to the latest reports, ISIS controls about one-third of Iraq and is just 60km from Baghdad. ISIS and Syrian rebels had already seized vast tracts of Syria, including its border with Iraq. ISIS’s stated objective to create a huge new Islamic Caliphate, combining Iraq and Syria, run under the Sharia law. If it achieves this, one can be sure that that would not be the end of its ambitions.
Let’s look at a short history of how the US messed it all up. The US and its allies attacked Iraq in 2003 claiming that Saddam Hussein had links with al Qaeda, and was building weapons of mass destruction. It has since been proved conclusively—and admitted by the Pentagon and the US Senate select committee on intelligence—that both claims were false. In fact, the Allied occupation of Iraq gave the al Qaeda just the opportunity it needed to leverage Iraqi humiliation and set up base in the country. Finance from Saudi Arabia, supposedly an US (and especially Bush family) ally, flowed in.
Once the US took charge of Iraq, it dissolved the country’s 430,000-men-strong army. Lakhs of out-of-work troops and senior officers deprived of their severance packages had to go somewhere. Thousands joined the ISIS. A new Iraqi army was built under US supervision and training, but it is proving to be no match for the more experienced and motivated forces they are now facing.
Next, the US wanted to set up a democracy in Iraq, with a new Constitution and an elected Parliament. The hamhanded and hurried effort to imposing democracy on a nation that has never known it, didn’t work. The US ended up putting in place a Shia bigot, Nouri al-Maliki, as Prime Minister. Though the Sunnis form a majority of Muslims across the world, Iraq and Iran are Shia majority. Al-Maliki set about persecuting the Sunnis in myriad ways. Sunni unrest grew.
Meanwhile, in neighbouring Syria, the Sunnis got fed up with the Shia-favouring policies of President Assad and rose in armed rebellion. The ISIS moved in as brothers in arms. Jihadis from as far off as France and the US signed up with the ISIS. The US and its allies, totally clueless about what was going on, supported the rebels, who were by now led by the ISIS, a proxy for al Qaeda. Iran sent in Hezbollah militia from Lebanon to help Assad. So the US ended up aiding the very same army that is today about to wrench Iraq from its control and turn it into an Islamic fundamentalist state.
President Barack Obama has made it clear that he will not send US ground troops to fight in Iraq. The American people wouldn’t stand for more of their sons and brothers killed on foreign soil. He has moved an aircraft carrier into the Gulf and is considering drone and perhaps Air Force strikes. However, he also wants al-Maliki, in the meantime, to reach out to Sunnis and undo some of the divisive policies he has been revelling in. This is far too little, far too late, and as if the ISIS cares!
By the way, when the ISIS captured Mosul, Iraq’s second-largest city, they looted the central bank there, and harvested an equivalent of $430 million and an unknown amount of gold bullion, making it the richest terrorist organisation in history.
Now the US has reached out to Iran, which it has not been talking to for three decades, for assistance. Iran, presumably, will be willing, but on its own terms. It will want some clear concessions on its nuclear programme.
What are the possible scenarios? The Iranian army moves into Iraq, supported by the US Air Force. The ISIS will then certainly divert part of its forces from Syria, quite simply because Iran is the bigger enemy, and Iraq has more than 50 times the oil reserves of Syria. The resulting war could go on for years (the last Iran-Iraq war lasted eight years), with Iraq descending into hopeless anarchy, massive loss of life, and the global oil economy affected deeply and long-term.
The war could also spill over into other countries in the region (Lebanon and Turkey have already been affected by the war in Syria), which would be the ISIS’ intention—to complicate matters as much as possible. This is what the Gulf monarchies are terrified of, even though they have no love lost for either Iran or Iraq.
While the ISIS has been fighting the Iraqi army, the Kurds in their semi-autonomous province in northwest Iraq have become more or less independent. This would be bothering Turkey, because a large chunk of what the Kurds see as their homeland, Kurdistan, falls in Turkey. The Kurds may want a full Kurdistan.
Even if the war ends in a reasonable time, and the ISIS is defeated, Iran will make sure that it places a puppet government in Baghdad, and emerges as the supreme power in West Asia, which has been its ambition for three decades (if not centuries or millenia). If the ISIS wins, and manages to establish its Caliphate, all geopolitical equations will be transformed. Either way, the US loses, and possibly so does secular liberal democracy, due to the ignorant adventurism of one country. Think of it this way: if the US war on Iraq was actually about control of its oil, it’s not even going to get that now.
No, actually, the story did not begin with George W. Bush. It began two decades before he came to power, with the Americans backingOsama bin Laden to lead mujahideens against the Soviet occupiers of Afghanistan, through the good offices of general Zia-ul-Huq of Pakistan. So many years later, no resolution or ending is in sight. One can only hope that the wars in Iraq and Syria do not escalate into something much bigger and much more dangerous for the planet.
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