Iran’s nuclear deal portends a radical shift in power equations in West Asia and beyond
The interim international deal reached in Geneva on Sunday to reduce the risks of Iran producingnuclear weapons has the potential of radically redrawing global geopolitics. There are, of course, hurdles along the way. To begin with, both sides have interpreted its significance in their own light.President Hassan Rouhani, backed by the country's top cleric and supreme leader, AyatollahAli Khamenei, has claimed that it acknowledges Iran's "sovereign right to enrich uranium" and further that it "shatters the regime of punitive sanctions" imposed on his country. The fact, however, is that this right is implied in the text of the agreement but not specifically mentioned in it.
Its formal acknowledgement will emerge only when the negotiations move towards a comprehensive resolution of all issues related to Iran's nuclear programme. This holds true for sanctions as well. A beginning has been made to lift them. But, as President Obama categorically stated, the US would turn off the tap of sanction relief and "ratchet up the pressure" if Iran fails to abide by its commitments over the six-month period covered by the interim deal.
Meanwhile, Obama will have to summon all his powers of persuasion to convince US Congress where there is a great deal of hostility to him, as well as America's hugely miffed allies - Israel, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states. Growing US energy independence from Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states should, however, help in this regard.
Regardless of hurdles, the deal cut in Geneva does signal the start of a radical change in power equations in West Asia and much beyond it. Its place on the high table of international diplomacy now assured, Iran's rapprochement with the US is bound to lead to a new balance of forces between Shias and Sunnis and Muslims and Jews, give foreign forces in Afghanistan another exit route and, by that same token, lessen America's dependence on Pakistan, its double-dealing strategic partner. That, in turn, offers New Delhi space to manoeuvre and an opportunity to engage even more firmly than in the past with the countries that will be impacted, directly or otherwise, by the deal in Geneva. The only question is: does New Delhi have the will and political imagination to seize the opportunity offered?
The interim international deal reached in Geneva on Sunday to reduce the risks of Iran producingnuclear weapons has the potential of radically redrawing global geopolitics. There are, of course, hurdles along the way. To begin with, both sides have interpreted its significance in their own light.President Hassan Rouhani, backed by the country's top cleric and supreme leader, AyatollahAli Khamenei, has claimed that it acknowledges Iran's "sovereign right to enrich uranium" and further that it "shatters the regime of punitive sanctions" imposed on his country. The fact, however, is that this right is implied in the text of the agreement but not specifically mentioned in it.
Its formal acknowledgement will emerge only when the negotiations move towards a comprehensive resolution of all issues related to Iran's nuclear programme. This holds true for sanctions as well. A beginning has been made to lift them. But, as President Obama categorically stated, the US would turn off the tap of sanction relief and "ratchet up the pressure" if Iran fails to abide by its commitments over the six-month period covered by the interim deal.
Meanwhile, Obama will have to summon all his powers of persuasion to convince US Congress where there is a great deal of hostility to him, as well as America's hugely miffed allies - Israel, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states. Growing US energy independence from Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states should, however, help in this regard.
Regardless of hurdles, the deal cut in Geneva does signal the start of a radical change in power equations in West Asia and much beyond it. Its place on the high table of international diplomacy now assured, Iran's rapprochement with the US is bound to lead to a new balance of forces between Shias and Sunnis and Muslims and Jews, give foreign forces in Afghanistan another exit route and, by that same token, lessen America's dependence on Pakistan, its double-dealing strategic partner. That, in turn, offers New Delhi space to manoeuvre and an opportunity to engage even more firmly than in the past with the countries that will be impacted, directly or otherwise, by the deal in Geneva. The only question is: does New Delhi have the will and political imagination to seize the opportunity offered?
IAEA head welcomes Iran’s nuclear compliance
U.N. atomic watchdog chief Yukiya Amano welcomed Iran’s compliance with measures to lift suspicions about its nuclear programme on Monday, but cautioned that some doubt remained.
He also appealed for patience ahead of a July 20 deadline for a deal between Western powers and Iran, as the IAEA analyses data that Iran may have sought a nuclear bomb.
In a report last month, Mr. Amano revealed that Iran had so far stuck by its agreements with the IAEA and implemented all recently agreed measures, even addressing matters related to bomb-making for the first time in six years.
The so-called “possible military dimensions” (PMDs) of Iran’s nuclear programme — including the use of detonators — have long been of concern to the international community, although Iran insists the aims of its programme are purely peaceful.
“Iran has engaged with the agency substantively, including in the clarification of issues related to the use of exploding bridge wire detonators,” Mr. Amano told IAEA member states on Monday.
This “has helped us to gain a better understanding of its nuclear programme,” he added.
Tehran’s further agreement in May to implement five new practical measures “is a further welcome step forward,” he also said.
Iran and western powers — the so-called P5+1, including the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council and Germany — are striving to draft a potentially historic nuclear deal by July 20.
Several rounds of talks have already been held in Vienna but the latest in mid-May ended with no apparent progress on a deal.
A next round — held separately from Iran’s meetings with the IAEA — is planned for June 16-20 in Vienna.
While welcoming Iran’s cooperation with the IAEA, Mr. Amano also pointed to some lingering concern over its nuclear drive, including activities at the Parchin military base — observed via satellite — where Iran is suspected of conducting research for a nuclear payload.
UK to reopen embassy in Iran as relations thaw
Kounteya Sinha
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London:
TNN
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Britain plans to reopen its embassy in Iran, foreign secretary William Hague said on Tuesday .The move comes two and a half years after a mob ransacked its embassy in Tehran and all diplomatic relations were suspended.
The election of a new president and a likely deal on Tehran's nuclear programme has led to renewed contacts with Iran this year.
The Islamic State in Iraq and Syria-led insurgency in Iraq has also forced the West to reassess its ties with Tehran.
Hague said on Tuesday , “I have now decided the circumstances are right to reopen our embassy in Tehran.
There are a range of practical issues that we will need to resolve first. However, it is our intention to reopen the embassy in Tehran with a small initial presence as soon as these practical arrangements are made. I expect the Iranian government will similarly choose to take steps to reopen its embassy in London.“ He said UK's primary concerns when considering whether to reopen the embassy in Tehran were “assurance that our staff would be safe and secure, and confidence that they would be able to carry out their functions without hindrance“.
Hague also said that the initial embassy presence will only be able to offer a limited range of services at first. For the time being, Iranians will still need to apply in Abu Dhabi or Istanbul for visas for travel to the UK.
The election of a new president and a likely deal on Tehran's nuclear programme has led to renewed contacts with Iran this year.
The Islamic State in Iraq and Syria-led insurgency in Iraq has also forced the West to reassess its ties with Tehran.
Hague said on Tuesday , “I have now decided the circumstances are right to reopen our embassy in Tehran.
There are a range of practical issues that we will need to resolve first. However, it is our intention to reopen the embassy in Tehran with a small initial presence as soon as these practical arrangements are made. I expect the Iranian government will similarly choose to take steps to reopen its embassy in London.“ He said UK's primary concerns when considering whether to reopen the embassy in Tehran were “assurance that our staff would be safe and secure, and confidence that they would be able to carry out their functions without hindrance“.
Hague also said that the initial embassy presence will only be able to offer a limited range of services at first. For the time being, Iranians will still need to apply in Abu Dhabi or Istanbul for visas for travel to the UK.
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