Yanukovych, opposition reach deal
Yielding to hard Western pressure, Ukraine’s embattled President Viktor Yanukovych has agreed to call early presidential election, cede key powers to Parliament and form a coalition caretaker government. Ukrainian and Russian analysts described Mr. Yanukovych’s decision as total surrender.
The Ukrainian leader made the announcement on his website after marathon talks with opposition leaders brokered by the Foreign Ministers of Germany, France and Poland.
The three opposition leaders approved the deal after “consulting” protesters in the streets.However, the extremist Right Sector group, which led the clashes with police in recent weeks and wrecked a truce earlier this week, has immediately rejected the accord.
The far right group dismissed the deal as “another whitewash” because it fell short of the opposition’s demands for Mr. Yanukovych’s immediate resignation, dissolution of the Parliament, prosecution of the security services chief and a ban on Mr. Yanukovych’s Party of the Regions and the Communist Party.
Mr. Yanukovych gave no timeline for the proposed steps, but the Parliament has already started implementing the accord. Legislators voted in the evening for reverting to the 2004 Constitution, which took away from President and gave to Parliament the right to appoint Prime Minister and the cabinet.
The Constitution was scrapped after Mr. Yanukovych won presidential elections in 2010.
The Constitution was scrapped after Mr. Yanukovych won presidential elections in 2010.
a coalition government is to be formed within 10 days and new presidential elections will be held before the end of the year, about six months earlier than scheduled.
Back from the brink in Ukraine
Ukraine’s President Viktor Yanukovych has recognised the increasingly dangerous nature of the situation in his country by announcing early elections and a return to the 2004 Constitution, which will limit the President’s powers.
This follows escalating violence over the last several days, in which 77 people, including police personnel, have been killed and 577 injured.
International condemnation was rapid, with U.S. President Barack Obama warning against Ukrainian military involvement and calls for sanctions coming from German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President François Hollande.
Reactions within Ukraine have included the occupation of civic buildings in the western city of Lviv; rail services between the capital, Kiev, and Lviv were suspended, and at least 45 Ukrainian athletes have returned home from the Winter Olympics in Sochi.
The violence caused severe divisions throughout the country, with several police officers siding with or joining the protesters; as it was, the Yanukovych government had long incurred public distrust for corruption and nepotism.
This follows escalating violence over the last several days, in which 77 people, including police personnel, have been killed and 577 injured.
International condemnation was rapid, with U.S. President Barack Obama warning against Ukrainian military involvement and calls for sanctions coming from German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President François Hollande.
Reactions within Ukraine have included the occupation of civic buildings in the western city of Lviv; rail services between the capital, Kiev, and Lviv were suspended, and at least 45 Ukrainian athletes have returned home from the Winter Olympics in Sochi.
The violence caused severe divisions throughout the country, with several police officers siding with or joining the protesters; as it was, the Yanukovych government had long incurred public distrust for corruption and nepotism.
In addition, the President’s own moves had exacerbated the uncertainty; for example, he replaced the head of the armed forces but without giving reasons.
The focus now, however, must be on orderly and peaceful progress towards elections which must be impeccably conducted if the country is not to face further crises. That particularly requires genuinely constructive conduct on the part of Russia and the European Union; the latter has been less than straightforward at times, as its earlier association agreement with Ukraine — which Mr. Yanukovych abandoned in December 2013 — was tied to International Monetary Fund conditions and to closer military cooperation between Ukraine and the EU’s NATO-dominated military institutions. Crucially, only 30 per cent of Ukrainians supported the deal, which also incurred Moscow’s displeasure. Now, however, Ukrainians have an opportunity to make their own decisions about their future in the best possible way, with a democratic election; they must make the most of it.
Russia backs Crimea’s bid to split from Ukraine
The focus now, however, must be on orderly and peaceful progress towards elections which must be impeccably conducted if the country is not to face further crises. That particularly requires genuinely constructive conduct on the part of Russia and the European Union; the latter has been less than straightforward at times, as its earlier association agreement with Ukraine — which Mr. Yanukovych abandoned in December 2013 — was tied to International Monetary Fund conditions and to closer military cooperation between Ukraine and the EU’s NATO-dominated military institutions. Crucially, only 30 per cent of Ukrainians supported the deal, which also incurred Moscow’s displeasure. Now, however, Ukrainians have an opportunity to make their own decisions about their future in the best possible way, with a democratic election; they must make the most of it.
Crisis threatens to split Ukraine as President flees to pro-Russian city
The crisis in Ukraine threatened to split the country along East-West fault lines on Saturday as the Parliament voted to remove President Viktor Yanukovych from power, while he accused the opposition of a “coup” and pro-Russian Eastern provinces refused to accept Kiev’s authority.
Hours after he signed an accord with the opposition to end a three-month long standoff, Mr. Yanukovych appeared to have lost the grip on power and fled Kiev to Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second biggest city in the East, denouncing the events in the capital as “vandalism, banditry and a coup d’etat.”
Protesters, who booed and heckled opposition leaders on Friday for striking a “compromise” deal with Mr. Yanukovych, took control of the presidential office and government buildings in Kiev after police and security forces withdrew in keeping with the Parliament’s ruling. The activists also occupied Mr. Yanukovych’s residence outside Kiev and opened it to the public for sightseeing.
In a breach of the accord between Mr. Yanukovych and the opposition, the radical protesters refused to surrender their arms and continued their vigil in Kiev.
Opposition lawmakers, boosted by defectors from the ruling party, voted to “approve the resignation” of Mr. Yanukovych and call new elections for May 25. This contravenes the agreement between Mr. Yanukovych and the opposition, which provided for new elections to be held before the end of the year.
The Parliament also voted to set free the former Prime Minister, Yulia Tymoshenko, who was jailed during Mr. Yanukovych’s presidency for abuse of power. Emerging from prison, Ms. Tymoshenko declared that “dictatorship has fallen” and said she would run for President. Ms. Tymoshenko, the star of the “orange revolution” of 2004, narrowly lost to Mr. Yanukovych in the 2010 elections.
Mr. Yanukovych went on local television in Kharkiv to state that he was still the legitimate President and would do all in his power to “protect the people” and “end the bloodshed.”
“I will not resign and will not leave the country,” Mr. Yanukovych said.
Officials and lawmakers of the eastern regions, at an emergency meeting in Kharkiv, accused the opposition of breaking the terms of the accord with Mr. Yanukovych and voted “to assume full responsibility for maintaining law and order, the rights and safety of the people on their territories” until “constitutional law and order is restored” in the country.
Yanukovych slams ‘pro-fascist’ coup
Strained relations between Russia and Ukraine in the wake of regime change in Kiev escalated into open hostility as the new authorities in Kiev accused Moscow of “armed invasion,” while ousted President Victor Yanukovych, speaking from Russia, said “pro-fascist forces” had seized power in Ukraine.
Hundreds of armed men, who reportedly were pro-Russian militia, took control of two main airports in Crimea on Friday to prevent “Kiev extremists” from coming to the peninsula to “cause trouble.”
The Russian Black Sea fleet shares the Soviet-era naval base in Sevastopol with a smaller Ukrainian naval force.
The moves came a day after the Parliament in Crimea, a Ukrainian autonomy with a predominantly Russian population, rejected the authority of new pro-Western leaders in Kiev and voted to hold a referendum on greater independence from Ukraine. The Crimean lawmakers also replaced the region’s Kiev-appointed head of government with Russian politician Sergei Aksyonov, leader of the “Russian Unity” party.
The Ukrainian Parliament on Friday called for an emergency meeting of the U.N. Security Council to intervene in the crisis in Crimea.
Lawmakers appealed to Russia, the United States and other signatories of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, which guaranteed Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity in exchange for its surrender of Soviet-era nuclear weapons.
The Parliament also urged Russia to stop moves seen as “undermining national sovereignty and territorial integrity” of Ukraine and supporting “separatism”.
The Russian Foreign Ministry on Friday turned down Ukraine’s request to conduct emergency consultations on the situation in Crimea on the grounds that the events in Crimea were a “consequence of internal political processes in Ukraine.”
The Russian Parliament is set to debate next week bills that would facilitate rules for foreign territories to join Russia and for Ukrainians to receive Russian citizenship.
Russia’s parliament backs use of armed force in Ukraine
Russia’s Parliament has approved the use of armed force in Ukraine, even as the West warned Moscow not to intervene in the troubled post-Soviet state.
Mr. Putin’s move came in response to a request of help to “secure peace and calm” in Crimea from the newly appointed pro-Russian Prime Minister of the region.
Ukraine: Germany could play a key role
A key economic partner to Moscow, Berlin’s position reflects its ability to bridge the widening chasm between Russia and the U.S.
In the face of the diplomatic manoeuvring over how to confront a bellicose Russia in Ukraine, one country appears to hold the key to any long-lasting entente: Germany, Europe’s economic powerhouse and one of Russia’s primary trading partners.
Germany is now heavily reliant on Russia for its energy needs, importing more natural gas from Russia than any other country in Europe.
But Germany’s enhanced status on the world stage — combined with the end of the commodity boom and the onset of economic stagnation in Russia — has also shifted the balance of power. Some analysts argue that it is Russia that has the most to lose if economic sanctions are ever imposed.
This dynamic could offer insight into the role that the German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, will play in any negotiations with the Russian President, Vladimir Putin.
So far, German diplomats have tacked away from a plan, pushed by the United States, to impose sweeping sanctions and remove Russia from the Group of Eight developed economic nations.
Instead, the German Chancellor has called for a more diplomatic solution, preferring more limited actions like many of her European counterparts.
But Ms. Merkel, a champion of closer ties between Ukraine and the European Union (EU), has also shown a willingness to take a hard line with Mr. Putin.
Still, Germany does not have the upper hand entirely in its relationship with Russia. About three-quarters of the gas and oil that Germany imported in 2013 came from Russia. The country also acts as a major gas transit hub for countries like France.
If there was a long-term shutdown of Russian gas, Germany would not be the only country to suffer. Prices would increase and supplies would be squeezed for countries like Turkey and Italy that also rely on Russian energy imports.
Tensions ease as Putin orders troops to pull back from border
The Russian leader confirmed that 1,50,000 troops who had been holding snap military drills near the Ukrainian border over the past seven days were returning to their bases.
Asked if he felt concerned that a war could break out in Ukraine, Mr. Putin said: “I’m not worried because we have no plans and will not fight a war against the people of Ukraine.”
He said Russia had no intention to annex Crimea. “We are not considering this option. I think only people living on a territory can and should decide their future.”
Recalling the case of Kosovo, which gained independence from Serbia, and the right to self-determination enshrined in U.N. documents, Mr. Putin said: “But we will never provoke anybody to take such a decision and will never encourage such sentiments.”
While Mr. Putin’s comments helped defuse tensions, the rift between Russia and the West over Ukraine appeared to be widening.
Russia backs Crimea’s bid to split from Ukraine
Russia has strongly backed Crimea’s bid to split from Ukraine in the backdrop of the United States flexing its military muscle close to Russian borders. Both Houses of the Russian Parliament on Friday voiced support for Crimea’s plans to hold a referendum on whether to break away from Ukraine and join Russia.
The Kremlin has not yet weighed in on the Crimean referendum, but the support of the Russian Parliament, which never deviates from the government line, is revealing.
The Russian Parliament is set to discuss a bill that would allow accession to Russia of breakaway foreign territories.
Washington has ratcheted up tension over the Ukraine crisis, sending a U.S Navy warship to the Black Sea and fighter planes to Poland. The USS Truxtun, a guided missile destroyer, passed the Bosphorus Straits on Friday.
We’ll halt inspections: Moscow
Russia has threatened to halt U.S. inspections of its strategic missile arsenals in retaliation for American sanctions in a sign of escalating standoff over the Ukraine crisis.
The Russian Defence Ministry is mulling a freeze on exchanges of compliance inspections under the START-3 nuclear arms reductions treaty, a military official told news agencies on Saturday.
U.S. President Barack Obama has ordered a visa ban, assets arrest and other sanctions against Russian officials deemed responsible for actions that “undermine democratic processes and institutions in Ukraine.” Washington also cancelled joint military drills with Russia and suspended preparations for a G8 summit in Sochi.
The European Union has drawn up a similar list of penalties.
Russian lawmakers in turn warned they could hit back by adopting a bill to allow assets of Western companies to be confiscated.
Differences persist
Despite intensive diplomatic efforts Russia and the West appear to be still wide apart over ways to resolve the Ukraine crisis. Russia holds the U.S. responsible for creating the crisis and therefore insists on discussing it with Washington, while the U.S. wants Russia to talk directly with Ukraine’s new leaders.
He added that the current standoff in Ukraine was the result of the Western powers’ failure to get opposition leaders implement the peace accord they signed with ousted President Viktor Yanukovych on February 21.
For his part, Mr. Obama on Friday discussed with German Chancellor Angela Merkel “the need for Russia to agree quickly on the formation of a contact group that will lead to direct dialogue between Ukraine and Russia to de-escalate the situation and restore Ukraine’s territorial integrity,” according to the White House.
Russia has rejected the idea of such a contact group.
Refused permission
Military observers from the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) were refused permission to enter Crimea on Saturday by armed men. The monitors said shots were fired in the air when they approached a checkpoint set up on a narrow 8-km strip of land linking the peninsula with mainland Ukraine. It was the group’s third attempt to enter Crimea in as many days.
Crimea is set to vote for joining Russia in a referendum set for next Sunday.
A reluctance to rattle the ‘bear’s cage’
Russia’s takeover of the Crimean peninsula has drawn condemnation from the West, but reaction has been more varied in the 14 former Soviet republics in Russia’s “near abroad”. Many have played a balancing act between Russia and the West, and almost all have significant Russian-speaking populations.
Azerbaijan: The oil-rich country in the South Caucasus has played the United States and Russia off against each other, previously hosting a Russian radar base and American troops.
Georgia: Reaction has perhaps been strongest in Georgia, which lost about 20 per cent of its territory when Russia cemented its control of two breakaway republics in the 2008 war.
Kazakhstan: The most influential country in central Asia, Kazakhstan is one of only two full members of Mr. Putin’s customs union.
Armenia: In 2013, Armenia declined an EU association agreement similar to the one offered to Ukraine and began moving towards membership of Russia’s customs union.
Kyrgyzstan: A revolution in 2010 brought in a regime which voted to close the U.S. airbase at Manas.
Uzbekistan: The U.S. leased an airbase there until 2005.
Tajikistan: Tajikistan is the former republic most dependent on remittances, with half its GDP coming from citizens in Russia.
Estonia: Estonia joined the EU and NATO in 2004 and has had frequent political clashes with Russia.
Belarus: “Speaking selfishly, a Russian Crimea is more preferable and comfortable as a vacation destination for Belarusians, but they see Hitler in Putin’s methods,” said photographer Andrei Dubinin.
Lithuania: Lithuania joined the EU and NATO in 2004 but retains a sizable population of ethnic Russians.
Moldova: Russia has propped up Moldova’s breakaway republic of Transnistria, but the country has had mixed relations with Moscow. About one million Moldovans work in Russia and half as many work in the EU.
Living up to the Cold War stereotype
In November 2013, then Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych (still accepted by all parties as democratically elected) decided not to sign the association agreement with the EU. Instead, he opted for the Russian economic bailout package — $15 billion plus natural gas at discounted prices. Protests ensued, with thousands occupying central Kiev.
The protests spread to other towns in western Ukraine, with government buildings being occupied with muscle provided by rightwing and neo-Nazi outfits. In Kiev, meanwhile, Yanukovych decided by mid-February that it was time to clear the demonstrators from the streets. Police action started. Nearly 100 people were reportedly killed. (Latest reports indicate that many of these deaths were the result of work by snipers from the opposition forces.)
Mysteriously, the police action was halted and the opposition invited for talks. The negotiations resulted in an agreement on February 21 that was a virtual surrender by Yanukovych. The agreement, countersigned by three European foreign ministers, was summarily dismissed by the protesters, who were by now led by radical nationalists. No one, including the three ministers, appeared to object.
Yanukovych fled the capital, surfacing later in southern Russia. The Ukrainian parliament, meanwhile, anointed an interim president, Oleksandr Turchynov, and subsequently a cabinet of ministers led by Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk. Moscow viewed these developments as a coup manufactured by radical Ukrainian nationalists with full support of the US and Europe.
The Kremlin fears that Kiev will now pursue aggressive pro-Western policies — not only looking for economic integration with the EU but also seeking membership of Nato, discarding the neutrality it undertook to maintain in 2010. Moscow also fears that Ukraine may seek to reopen the question of the Crimean port of Sevastopol being a base for Russia’s Black Sea fleet. Russia fears that the loss of the Crimean base will alter the strategic balance, making the Black Sea a large Nato-dominated lake.
Given this background, Moscow moved swiftly to secure Crimea, which neither Russia nor most Crimeans have ever accepted as being part of Ukraine. Crimea’s “gifting” to Ukraine in 1954 by Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev had little significance while the USSR existed, but became a contentious issue with the collapse of the Soviet Union. Russia will not withdraw from Crimea without significant concessions from Kiev, which the current dispensation in the Ukrainian capital is unlikely to agree to. The best-case scenario for Ukraine’s territorial integrity would be a confederacy with Crimea. If not, in all likelihood Crimea will be absorbed into the Russian Federation. The Crimean parliament vote is a precursor to this eventuality.
Russia is unlikely to repeat the Crimean scenario in eastern and southern Ukraine, primarily because this would lead to a long and bloody war, which will inevitably draw in the West. If the authorities in Kiev do not show adequate statesmanship and tolerance, a humanitarian refugee crisis may develop in Russia’s neighbouring areas.
A solution to the Ukrainian imbroglio lies in shedding old Cold War stereotypes and treating the crisis as an opportunity to complete the unfinished business of establishing geopolitical equilibrium in the former Soviet space. In the triumphalism after the collapse of the Soviet Union, evolving and institutionalising the new rules of engagement in the post-Soviet space was forgotten. Russia believes that it has a natural sphere of influence that the rest of the world must recognise. Finland is probably the example that Russia would like the states on its borders to emulate — economic engagement with the West if desired, but military neutrality.
Whatever the outcome, it is not going to be business as usual. The spectre of a full-blown Cold War will unlikely materialise — probably a Cold War-lite, with continuing cooperation between Russia and the West in crucial areas like Syria, Iran, Afghanistan and North Korea.
What should India do? India would do well to follow developments closely and analyse the interplay between big states and smaller neighbours. India is not a player in the current Ukrainian crisis, although it has good relations with all parties involved and significant strategic partnerships with some of them. Therefore, following the adage that “one can never be hurt by what one has not said” may be the most sensible policy for New Delhi.
What should India do? India would do well to follow developments closely and analyse the interplay between big states and smaller neighbours. India is not a player in the current Ukrainian crisis, although it has good relations with all parties involved and significant strategic partnerships with some of them. Therefore, following the adage that “one can never be hurt by what one has not said” may be the most sensible policy for New Delhi.
The many shades of grey in Ukraine
When is an invasion not an invasion? When is sovereignty not sovereignty? When is an unelected regime more legitimate than an elected government? The answer, it seems, is when we are discussing Ukraine. The crisis in Ukraine has swiftly turned into a global stand-off. It has also become the focus for a war of words about the meaning of freedom, democracy, legitimacy and sovereignty.
For many in the West, Russia’s operations in Crimea bear comparison to Hitler’s annexation of the Sudetenland in 1938. Others fear that Vladimir Putin is launching a new Cold War. Russian commentators, in the meantime, accuse the West of helping overthrow an elected government in the Ukraine, and of supporting a fascist putsch.
What is rarely acknowledged in this war of words is that the conflict in Ukraine is far messier than how many wish to paint it. Consider, for instance, three of the key questions that lie at the heart the struggle in Ukraine.
Revolution or coup?
Were the events in Kiev that led to the crisis a revolution or a coup?
Many Western commentators see the protests that led to the overthrowing of President Viktor Yanukovich as a revolution. Russian commentators view it as a fascist coup. Neither is the case.
Mr. Yanukovich’s government was corrupt, authoritarian and brutal. It was also democratically elected. The fact that Mr. Yanukovich was democratically elected does not mean that he should not have been challenged outside of the ballot box. Democracy is not just about placing a cross on a ballot paper. It is also about the creation of a robust public sphere, of a polity that is contested as much in the streets and the workplaces as in the polling station.
The protests against Mr. Yanukovich that erupted in Kiev’s Maidan, or Independence Square, and that eventually led to his downfall, were as much part of the democratic process as was the election of the President in the first place. They were expressions of popular unrest, no different to the mass protests against President Mohammed Morsy that engulfed Egypt last year. But the weakness of Ukraine’s liberal opposition allowed the far right to take a leading role, just as in Egypt a similar weakness of liberal organisation put the military in the driving seat. The street thugs of Pravy Sektor or ‘Right Sector’ — a collection of hardcore neo-Nazi groups — were particularly prominent. In normal circumstances Western commentators would have denounced their presence on the streets of Kiev; because they played a useful role in the overthrow of Mr. Yanukovich, the fascists thugs have been accepted with a shrug.
If the protests were, at least partly, progressive and democratic, the regime that has replaced the Yanukovich government is neither. It was put together largely by the Foreign Ministers of Germany, Poland and France who helped organise the negotiations between Mr. Yanukovich and the opposition.
The new government has shown itself to be as authoritarian as the old one. One of its first acts was to deny regions the right to give official status to languages other than Ukrainian. The prospective law was eventually vetoed by the interim President; it was, nevertheless, a hugely symbolic move in a nation in which 40 per cent of the population speaks Russian, and another 5 per cent other non-Ukraine languages.
While the overthrow of Mr. Yanukovich was clearly no fascist putsch, the new government is, nevertheless, disproportionately influenced by the far right. Representatives of two neo-fascist parties, Svoboda and Right Sector, now occupy seven ministerial posts, including that of Deputy Prime Minister and national security. Svoboda is a party that traces its roots to a Second World War partisan army allied to the Nazis and is part of the far-right Alliance of European National Movements, whose members include the British National Party (BNP); Jobbik, Hungary’s neo-fascist, anti-Semitic party; and the French Front National. Svoboda leader Oleh Tyahnybok has denounced in Parliament the ‘Muscovite-Jewish mafia’ that he claims controls Ukraine.
All of Ukraine’s fascists are not simply on one side. The pro-Russian side has been pouring out anti-Semitic propaganda, claiming that the protest leaders are all Jews, and that if European liberalism gains sway, their children would be ‘turned gay’. What is particularly troubling, though, is that those who support the supposedly progressive, pro-European cause can acquiesce so easily to the presence of fascists in their midst.
Referendum in Crimea
Should Crimea be allowed to secede from Ukraine?
Russia insists that the coming referendum in Crimea to determine whether or not it wishes to join the Russian federation is an expression of democracy and self-determination. Western commentators condemn it as an illegal vote contrary to international law and the Ukrainian Constitution.
The referendum takes place against the background of what is effectively a Russian invasion of Crimea. The presence of Russian forces and government control of the media make unlikely the possibility of a clean vote.
The break-up of Ukraine would be potentially disastrous, threatening bloody sectarian violence and entrenching ethnic animosities. Many groups in Crimea, Muslim Tartars in particular, are rightly fearful of the Russian embrace. Yet, the Western condemnations of the Crimean referendum miss the point. It ill-behoves governments that recently helped circumvent the Ukrainian Constitution to get rid of Viktor Yanukovich and install an unelected government to dismiss the referendum as ‘unconstitutional’. Nor does it help that those Western powers now insisting on the ‘territorial integrity’ of Ukraine and defending Ukrainian sovereignty from foreign interference are the same nations that in a series of conflicts from the Balkans to Afghanistan to Iraq have helped undermine notions of national sovereignty and territorial integrity in the name of a greater good when it suited them to do so.
It is not surprising that Russian President Vladimir Putin should use the language of ‘protection’, ‘self-determination’ and ‘opposition to fascism’ to justify his military intervention in Crimea. Mr. Putin’s absurd self-justifications should not be taken seriously. But the fact that he can use such justifications reflects the way that Western actions over the past two decades have helped shape the language of ‘humanitarian’ intervention.
Western politicians fail to recognise the strong sentiment that exists in large parts of Ukraine in support of close ties with Russia. A poll conducted by Kiev’s independent Razumov Centre in January last year revealed that only a third of Crimeans viewed Ukraine as their homeland, while half wanted independence. Seventy per cent wanted closer ties to Russia, compared to 20 per cent who favoured the European Union (EU). Nor are such sentiments exclusive to Crimea. The same poll found that more than half the population in eastern Ukraine wanted closer ties with Russia, whereas fewer than one in five preferred the EU.
Ukraine is a divided nation. If many in western Ukraine express their disenchantment with corrupt, undemocratic governance through greater support for the EU, many in eastern Ukraine and in Crimea do so through a yearning for closer ties with Moscow. Such pro-Russian sentiment is as important a part of Ukraine’s democratic voice as are the calls for greater integration with Western Europe. Western politicians’ refusal to take seriously the pro-Russian sentiment, and their support for an unelected government in Kiev that many in Ukraine despise and even fear, can only exacerbate tensions and make more likely the disastrous break-up of Ukraine.
Is the struggle in Ukraine a struggle between Russia and the West?
The roots of the current conflict lie in the struggle between Russia and the West for influence in Kiev. Many in the West have come to see that struggle for influence as synonymous with the struggle for liberal democracy. Greater Russian control is certainly likely to lead to greater repression. It is far from clear, though, that greater Western influence will in itself necessarily lead to greater liberty and democracy.
Western powers, while often being the loudest voices in proclaiming the virtues of democracy, have often taken an instrumental view of its desirability, preferring to prop up dictators when it suits their needs. Take, for instance, the West’s attitude towards Bahrain, a state that has, with considerable bloodshed, and not a little help from neighbouring Saudi Arabia, viciously suppressed the local movement for democratic change. Bahrain and Saudi Arabia are, however, important Western allies, particularly in the ‘war on terror’. So the Bahraini opposition movement has been largely ignored, while a regime far more dictatorial than that of Victor Yanukovich continues to be showered with Western favours.
The key struggle in Ukraine is not between Russia and the West. It is for democracy and for those values often associated with the West, but not always promoted by the West. That is why, while we need to oppose Russian strongarm tactics, we need also to be sceptical of Western interference.
What is black and white in Ukraine is the need for a liberal democratic society, free from corruption and external interference. But the reality of the conflict on the ground is shrouded in many shades of grey.
Kerry to press Lavrov against Crimea move
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry will meet Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in London on Friday in a last-minute attempt to persuade Russia to turn down Crimea’s plea for accession.
Russian President Vladimir Putin convened a meeting of the Kremlin Security Council to discuss Ukraine ahead of the London meeting, announced in Moscow on Thursday following Mr. Kerry’s phone call to Mr. Lavrov.
Opening the meeting, Mr. Putin said the crisis in Ukraine had broken out “not through our fault,” and it was an “internal Ukrainian crisis,” but Russia was involved in it “one way or another.”
The Russian leader asked the Security Council to discuss “how we can build relations with our partners and friends in Ukraine and with partners in Europe and the United States.”
U.S. President Barack Obama received Ukraine’s Acting Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk in Washington on Wednesday, pledging to “stand with Ukraine” and warning Russia it would pay a price for its “violations of international law and its encroachments on Ukraine.”
Speaking in Congress on Wednesday, Mr. Kerry made it clear he would press Mr. Lavrov not to accept Crimea’s bid to join Russia. Meanwhile, Moscow appeared more concerned with neutralising possible threat to Crimea’s referendum on Sunday from Crimean Tatars, who are opposed to the peninsula’s split from Ukraine.
Mr. Putin invited Crimean Tatar leader Mustafa Dzhemilev to Moscow on Wednesday to discuss the upcoming referendum.
Mr. Dzhemilev said afterwards that he had told Mr. Putin that Crimean Tatars recognised the new authorities in Kiev and would boycott the referendum. However, he promised the Russian leader not to try to disrupt the vote.
Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin deported Tatars from Crimea during World War Two and they were only allowed to return shortly before the breakup of the Soviet Union.
Choice in Crimea
US President Barack Obama’s meeting with acting Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk at the White House on Wednesday was the most demonstrably public show of support for Kiev’s interim government from Washington. On Sunday, ethnic Russian-majority Crimea votes in a referendum on whether to remain in Ukraine or join Russia, with nobody doubting the outcome. The West has warned that the referendum violates the UN Charter and is illegal. Obama’s threat of imposing “costs” on Russia’s continued occupation of Crimea echoed a G7 warning of further sanctions against Russian officials and entities.
From Russian President Vladimir Putin’s perspective, Moscow is fully in control of the situation, or opportunity, it has created out of an adversity — former Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych’s exit. The current pace of events suits Moscow and Putin can anticipate the sanctions. The EU plans to sign a political agreement with Kiev later this month and the US Senate has authorised a $1 billion loan guarantee to Kiev. But given the centrality of Crimea to Russia’s sense of history and strategic calculations, even the growing uncertainty about June’s G8 meet in Sochi is not diluting Russia’s firmness.
As US Secretary of State John Kerry meets Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Friday, he would do well to keep in mind the Obama administration’s initial missteps in handling the crisis. Antagonising Russia isn’t the key to securing Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Rather, Moscow’s pressure point is Berlin and German Chancellor Ankela Merkel’s steadily toughening stance. The two economies are intricately linked, but that also implies economic sanctions will hurt not only Russia but also the West, particularly a Germany dependent on Russian oil and gas. Efforts must be made to begin a serious dialogue between Kiev and Moscow and resolve the crisis diplomatically. Doubtless, it will involve compromises and costs on both sides.
Crimea breaks away from Ukraine, asks to rejoin Russia
Crimea declared independence from Ukraine and applied to rejoin Russia, hours after its residents overwhelmingly supported the historic passage in a referendum on Sunday.
Nearly 97 percent of voters said “yes” to revert to Russia, from which Crimea had been separated when the Soviet Union broke up just over 20 years ago. A mere 2.5 percent voted in favour of staying with Ukraine.
The turnout was a record-breaking 83 percent of Crimea’s 1.5 million eligible voters. With ethnic Russians constituting 58 percent of the region’s population, the vote results indicate that many ethnic Ukrainians, who account for nearly a quarter of Crimeans, voted for reunification with Russia. The Medjlis of Crimean Tatars said 95 percent of its followers boycotted the vote. Crimean Tatars, who make up about 12 percent of Crimea’s population, still smart from painful memories of their deportation by Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin during World War Two.
Crimea’s Parliament on Monday adopted a declaration of independence and a formal request to accede to Russia. Later a delegation of Crimean lawmakers left for Moscow to fast track the accession process.
Russia’s President Vladimir Putin will address a joint session of the Russian Parliament on Tuesday in connection with the Crimean referendum. The process of Crimea’s accession may take two to three months, according to experts. The Russian government has promised to raise the salaries and pensions for Crimean residents to the average Russian level, which is two to three times higher.
Moscow has also announced plans to expand its naval presence in Crimea, where it has been leasing a base for its Black Sea Fleet from Ukraine. “The Black Sea Fleet will be rebuilt and modernised in an intensive way to prepare it for the new strategic tasks in its zone of responsibility,” a spokesman for the Russian Navy told the Interfax news agency on Monday. Russia’s earlier plans to upgrade and beef up its Black Sea Fleet had been stymied by Ukraine.
U.S. President Barack Obama placed a phone call to Mr. Putin late on Sunday to warn him that the U.S. and “international community” will never recognise the results of the referendum that “violates the Ukrainian Constitution and occurred under duress of Russian military intervention.”
“In coordination with our European partners, we are prepared to impose additional costs on Russia for its actions,” the White House quoted Mr. Obama as saying.
Mr. Putin told Mr. Obama that the referendum in Crimea was “fully consistent with the norms of international law and the U.N. Charter” and was in line with the “Kosovo precedent,” the Kremlin said.
The U.S. and the European Union on Monday imposed sanctions against Russian and Ukrainian officials blamed for Moscow’s intervention in Crimea. Washington ordered a travel ban and asset freezes on 11 officials, including Ukraine’s ousted President Viktor Yanukovych and Speaker of the Russian Parliament’s upper house Valentina Matvienko and Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin. The E.U. sanctions list includes 21 names.
The new Cold War
The March 16 referendum on whether the southeastern Ukrainian province of Crimea should unite with Russia or have greater autonomy within Ukraine has presented the United States and the European Union with their most severe political test in decades. On available figures, almost 97 per cent of those who voted favoured unification with Russia; the option of the status quo was not offered, and the Crimean government, headed by Sergey Aksyonov, promptly voted to approve the plan. In the Ukrainian capital Kiev, interim Prime Minister Oleksandr Turchynov rejected the referendum as unconstitutional, but he was powerless to prevent it. The proximate cause of the referendum was the then Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych’s unannounced departure from office on February 22, following weeks of public protests – and a violent government crackdown — over revelations of his corruption and his abrogation of an association agreement with the EU, which may well have led to Ukraine’s joining the EU in due course. In response, Russia, which had offered Kiev a €15-billion aid package and retains a naval base at Sevastopol in Crimea, sent troops into the 58 per cent ethnic-Russian province, where Mr. Aksyonov had already been voted into the regional prime ministership while armed guards kept all but his own party out of the Assembly building in Simferopol.
Russian President Vladimir Putin considers Mr. Yanukovych the victim of a West-inspired coup d’état, but the issues are much wider. The EU deal would have involved Ukraine in IMF restructuring and much closer cooperation with NATO-dominated EU defence institutions. Moscow saw this as a threat, especially following the emergence of evidence that U.S. troops had helped prime Georgian weapons in the latter’s 2008 attempt to seize South Ossetia; Russian governments also recall the unilateral U.S. recognition of Kosovo in 2008, and Mr. Putin was incensed when plans emerged for Ukraine to join NATO. Moreover, ethnic Russians in Crimea were not consulted over then Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev’s decision to hand over the province to Ukraine when the USSR collapsed in 1991. Tensions within Ukraine were further exacerbated by Mr. Turchynov’s appointment of several far-right politicians to senior ministerial posts in Kiev, and by a new law ending the official status of the Russian language in Crimea. The U.S. and the EU are considering sanctions, such as visa bans and asset freezes, against Russian officials; the G7 countries have declared the Crimea referendum illegal, but no Western bloc may be able to stop the dismemberment of Ukraine and prevent the start of a new Cold War.
India not to back sanctions
With its major defence and nuclear interests tied up with Eurasia, India has made it clear that it will not support sanctions sought to be imposed on Russia by a select group of countries led by the U.S.
This is in line with India’s policy of implementing sanctions approved only by the United Nations, government sources said. Though India has supported sanctions against Fiji and economically blockaded Nepal twice in the past, it has spoken of late against “unilateral” sanctions.
The government’s stand emerged a day after Russian President Vladimir Putin called up Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to explain the situation that led to the annexation of Crimea. The Prime Minister dwelt on India’s position on the unity and territorial integrity of countries and suggested that “all concerned” strive for a diplomatic solution.
Russia’s statute court rules accession legal
Russia’s Constitutional Court on Wednesday unanimously ruled that the treaty on Crimea’s accession to Russia is legal and in line with the country’s Constitution.
The ruling came a day after President Vladimir Putin and the leaders of Crimea signed a treaty on the region’s reunification with Russia.
The Russian Parliament is expected to ratify the treaty on Thursday.
United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon will visit Moscow on Thursday for talks on Ukraine with Mr. Putin, the Interfax news agency reported.
Meanwhile, two people died from gun fire in Crimea in mysterious shooting at a Ukrainian military topography centre on Tuesday. One of those killed was a Ukrainian officer, the other a member of Crimea’s self-defence forces.
First casualties
The two deaths were the first fatalities since Russian forces took control of Crimea. Two more men, one each from the Ukrainian and Crimean side, were injured in the shooting.
Ukrainian authorities in Kiev blamed the killings on Crimean activists who allegedly tried to storm the centre. The crisis in Crimea is shifting to a “military stage,” Ukraine’s Acting Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk said.
“The blood of Ukrainian soldiers is on the leadership of the Russian Federation and specifically President Putin,” said Oleksandr Turchynov, the country’s interim president.
Crimean authorities for their part said the shooting was a provocation staged by far right nationalists from Ukraine and seized upon by the Ukrainian leaders to whip up tension in Crimea.
Following the incident the Ukrainian government lifted a ban on the use of firearms by Ukrainian forces in Crimea in self-defence.
Crimea’s forces on Wednesday took over without resistance the Ukrainian Navy’s headquarters in Sevastopol as part of their ongoing campaign to squeeze out Ukrainian military personnel from Crimea.
Before the standoff began there were about 22,000 Ukrainian military personnel on the peninsula.
In another incident in Kiev, the head of a state TV channel was violently assaulted in his office by Ukrainian radicals led by a lawmaker from the Svoboda right-wing party, which is part of the new ruling coalition.
Alexander Panteleymonov, CEO of the state-run NTU television, was repeatedly punched in the face, pushed and forced to write a resignation letter in a video posted online on Wednesday.
The attack was allegedly prompted by the channel’s broadcast of Mr. Putin's address on Crimea’s rejoining of Russia on Tuesday.
The new government in Kiev has banned several Russian TV channels in Ukraine.
More aid
The European Commission on Wednesday proposed extending one billion euros to Ukraine in addition to 610 million euros promised earlier. The loans are conditional on Ukraine reaching agreement with the International Monetary Fund on an aid package.
As bad as Falklands: Kirchner
Britain’s rule over the Falkland Islands is no more acceptable than Russia’s incorporation of Crimea, Argentinian President Cristina Kirchner said on Wednesday.
“You can’t defend the territorial integrity of Crimea and not do it for the Malvinas [the Spanish name for the Falklands],” Ms. Kirchner said after meeting French President Francois Hollande here.
“Territorial integrity has to apply to everyone.”
Britain, France and other western countries have called for Kiev’s territorial integrity to be preserved, saying Crimea is part of Ukraine and not part of Russia which absorbed the Black Sea peninsula after it voted to join Moscow in a Sunday referendum.
‘Worthless’
Ms. Kirchner added that a March 2013 referendum on the Falkland Islands, in which 99.8 percent of the islanders voted to remain a British overseas territory, was worthless.
“The Malvinas have always belonged to Argentina, whereas Crimea belonged to the Soviet Union and was given by Khrushchev to the Ukrainians,” she added.
The Falklands have been ruled by Britain since 1833 and the vast majority of the population of just under 3,000 people are of British heritage. Argentina invaded the islands in 1982 but they were reclaimed by British forces after a brief but bloody conflict. Tensions have resurfaced between the two countries in recent years following the discovery of significant offshore oil deposits close to the islands.
Reworking the pact
The speed with which Moscow formalised the annexation of Crimea, a province of Ukraine with a significant Russian majority, was as predictable as the tepid Western response. Crimea is too close to the Russian body and soul for Moscow to act otherwise. It is too remote for the West to be turned into a decisive political battlefield.
As President Vladimir Putin said in his speech to the Russian political elite on Tuesday, Moscow’s decision in 1954 to transfer the region from Russia to Ukraine was unjust and taken behind closed doors by then Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev. When the Soviet Union broke up in 1991, Moscow was too weak to resist the conversion of a large Russian population in Crimea into a minority in Ukraine.
As the political chaos in Kiev last month threatened the rights of the Russians in Crimea, Putin moved decisively to gain control of the province and organised a referendum that saw people vote to join Moscow.
Despite their tall talk, America and Europe had no stomach to impose sanctions that would really hurt Russia. The measures they threatened or adopted did not deter Russia. In addition, Washington needs Moscow’s cooperation on a range of global issues, and Western Europe is deeply dependent on Russian energy supplies.
The prospect of a new Cold War in Europe, then, is vastly overstated. But there is no denying the new chill in the relations between Russia and the West. To be sure, Putin has left some room for a dialogue, by promising not to claim additional territories of Ukraine. A potential understanding would involve harmonising the interests of different ethnic groups in Ukraine and guarantees from the West that Kiev will not be absorbed into the NATO. Above all, European stability depends on a long overdue Western recognition that they have treated post-Soviet Russia with disdain and have not shown any sensitivity to its core national interests.
As Russia and the West struggle to define the terms of an enduring accommodation in the heart of Europe, Moscow’s annexation of Crimea could play out very differently in Asia. Japan, the Philippines and Vietnam, locked in escalating maritime territorial disputes with a rising China, are deeply concerned at the inability of the US and the international system to stop a big power from snatching territories under the control of another. Crimea is a useful reminder to many Asian countries, including India, that there is no alternative to strong national defence capabilities in holding on to territories claimed by a great power.
Russia approves treaty on Crimea
The Russian Parliament has approved a treaty making Crimea part of Russia even as Ukraine proclaimed the region an “occupied territory” and threatened to go nuclear.
The State Duma, the Russian Parliament’s lower house, on Thursday, overwhelmingly ratified the treaty on reunification of Crimea with Russia signed two days back. The upper house is expected to endorse the pact on Friday.
Ukraine reacted to the Russian move with a flurry of legislative initiatives, ranging from a visa regime for Russia to acquiring nuclear weapons to stop Russia’s “invasion”.
The Ukrainian Parliament adopted a declaration stating that “the Ukrainian people will never, under any circumstances, stop fighting for the liberation of Crimea from the occupants.”
Ukraine’s Security Council has called for introducing a full-scale visa system for Russians and pulling out of the Commonwealth of Independent States, an amorphous association of former Soviet states. However, Acting Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk said Kiev should not be in a hurry to impose a visa regime on Russia as the measure would hurt Ukrainians who earn their living in Russia. There are 3 to 5 million Ukrainian migrant workers in Russia who remit home $4 to $5 billion a year.
Ukrainian lawmakers have also drafted a host of bills to protect Ukraine against “expansionist” Russia, including a bill that would “restore” Ukraine’s nuclear status. In 1994 Ukraine handed over to Russia the nuclear weapons left over after the breakup of the Soviet Union in exchange for international guarantees of its security and territorial integrity.
Other bills call for joining NATO, expelling Russia from the United Nations and declaring wartime mobilisation.
In Crimea, authorities on Thursday set free Admiral Serhiy Hayduk, the commander of Ukraine’s Black Sea Fleet, who had been detained following the storming of the Ukrainian naval headquarters by pro-Russian self-defence forces on Wednesday. Following the capture of the naval command, Ukraine’s other military units in Crimea gave up their peaceful resistance to the takeover by Crimean self-defence forces and disbanded.
Ukraine’s Security and Defence Council Secretary Andriy Parubiy said Ukraine will make arrangements to relocate as many as 25,000 soldiers and their families to the Ukrainian mainland. However, Russia said many Ukrainian servicemen in Crimea were applying to join the Russian armed forces. Russia’s Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu on Thursday asked President Vladimir Putin to sign a decree that would allow the Russian military to recruit Ukrainian servicemen.
U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon met with Mr Putin in Moscow on Thursday to discuss the Ukraine crisis. Mr Ban said they had a “constructive and productive meeting,” adding however that he had come to Moscow with a “heavy heart” and was “disappointed and concerned” over the Crimean referendum on splitting from Ukraine and rejoining Russia. He said the U.N. would do its utmost to facilitate direct dialogue between Moscow and Kiev. Russia has refused to talks to the new leaders in Kiev, whom it considers “illegitimate.”
Moscow on Thursday unveiled its own blacklist of nine U.S. nationals who will be banned from entry into Russia. The list published on the Russian Foreign Ministry’s website includes Speaker of the House of Representatives John Boehner, President Barack Obama’s aides Daniel Pfeiffer and Benjamin Rhodes, head of the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee Robert Menendez and some other senators and administration officials.
The Russian retaliation came minutes after Mr Obama announced new sanctions against Russia that adds 20 names to the earlier list of 11 penalised Russian officials, and includes a Russian bank. The officials, whose assets have been frozen and will be banned from visiting the U.S include Mr Putin’s head of staff, Sergei Ivanov, State Duma Speaker Sergei Naryshkin and some businessmen close to Mr Putin.
The U.S. President said the sanctions could be extended to broad sections of the Russian economy if Russia further escalates the Ukraine crisis.
America’s challenge in Ukraine
Vladimir Putin baptised his conquest of Crimea with a powerful, unsettling speech that should be a warning that an embattled Russia is fighting for what it sees as its national dignity — in ways that require a firm and patient U.S. response.
Putin played all the strings of the balalaika in his speech Tuesday announcing the annexation of Crimea. He was, by turns: sentimental, sarcastic, resentful and intimidating. He put the world on notice that he is determined to restore Russia’s place as a leading nation, even as its domestic economic and political position decays.
Eerily, Putin painted the Cold War as a benign moment: “After the dissolution of bipolarity on the planet, we no longer have stability.” Putin’s cure, evidently, is a return to what he would see as principled confrontation of an arrogant America.
The gist of Putin’s argument is that Russia has been subject to “double standards,” with America “calling the same thing white today and black tomorrow.” For example, he said the U.S. asserts a legal right for Kosovo to break away from Serbia but will not recognise Crimea’s split from Ukraine.
For the sake of argument, let’s assume that Putin is right: America does indeed ask to be treated differently than other countries. If so, that’s not because America is an innately “exceptional” or “indispensable” nation, as some would claim, but because the practical consequences of American leadership have been positive, especially for Europe.
The test of good U.S. policy going forward should be precisely this standard: Will American leadership help create a stable and prosperous Ukraine that can join the European economy, without threatening the security of Russia? Every element of American power should be focused on this goal.
Long memories
Putin showed in his grandiose speech he has a long memory. Indeed, modern history seems to be a nightmare from which he is trying to awake. He lamented: “What seemed impossible became a reality. The U.S.S.R. fell apart ... If you compress the spring all the way to its limit, it will snap back hard.” Putin is no Hitler, but his speech was chilling because these passages evoked the Anschluss themes of resentment and retaliation against national humiliation.
Americans and Europeans should have long memories, too — a perspective that goes deeper than America’s recent mistakes in Iraq, and its interrogation policy and overzealous use of NSA surveillance. The abiding truth about the U.S. is that it has been Europe’s friend and salvation. It rescued the continent from two world wars, unselfishly and at great cost. In place of Europe’s misguided “reparations” plan to punish Germany after World War I, the U.S. adopted the Marshall Plan for European reconstruction after the Second World War.
Most important, America kept faith with the idea that communist dictatorship would not be a permanent fact of life for Germany, Poland, the Baltic states and Russia itself. When the Soviet empire fell, America and its allies were ready to help build out Europe, whole and free.
Honest students of history should admit that America, like Russia, has embraced a “sphere of influence” near its borders, as expressed by the Monroe Doctrine of 1823. Two modern examples of intervention in our region were America’s invasions of Grenada in 1983 and Panama in 1989. So while we assert the illegality of Russia’s recent actions, we should understand that they are not unique — and may be remediable.
“Ukraine matters,” says former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright. By that, she means the U.S. needs to work now in Ukraine, as it did across Europe after the Berlin Wall fell in 1989, to build free markets and open political systems. This will require money, probably more than the $15 billion Europe has already pledged. It will mean “tough love” in fighting Ukraine’s endemic corruption. Though Ukraine won’t be a NATO member anytime soon, the alliance can help Ukraine build a strong security force through the “Partnership for Peace” programme, of which it has been a member since 1994.
Future of Ukraine
What will this future Ukraine look like? Zbigniew Brzezinski, a former national security adviser, has spoken of a “Finlandization” process of neutral independence. Graham Allison of Harvard’s Belfer Center has urged a similar “Belgian solution,” looking east and west at once.
Putin seems to understand that Ukraine is the strategic prize. He made an elaborate show of respect Tuesday, asserting: “We want Ukraine to be a strong, sovereign and self-sufficient country.” Amen to that. The challenge for U.S. policymakers is to make this free and independent Ukraine work.
No winners in a war of sanctions
Beneath their tough political rhetoric, European leaders are still wrestling uneasily over the ambit of punitive economic measures to be used against Russia for its role in the Ukrainian and Crimean developments.
Following the announcement by U.S. President Barack Obama of an expanded list of 21 individuals who will face bank asset freezes and travel bans, European Union (EU) leaders who met in Brussels increased their own list by 12, but postponed releasing the names till March 21 [when this went to print].
The sanctions are, at least for the present, seen as a political reproach of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s facilitation of Crimea’s integration into Russia. Even though the pressure was turned up a notch on March 20 to include several senior Russian officials into the sanctions net, the measures do not match the threatening oratory that has emerged from western capitals against Russia.
The next step — of broad-based economic sanctions including trade embargoes and business asset freezes — is likely to see much less of a consensus between the trans-Atlantic allies, and within the countries of Europe.
Indeed, at the EU Summit in Brussels on March 20, the 28-nation body said that it would go to the next level of punitive measures if Russia were to intervene in eastern Ukraine — an implicit recognition of Crimea’s integration into Russia as a fait accompli .
The EU sought to enhance its profile as a political player during the Ukrainian crisis by its direct engagement with the Euromaidan leaders and its facilitation of the February 21 Agreement between the Opposition and former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich. However, it has moved with considerable caution on the issue of economic sanctions.
At the EU Summit, though tougher sanctions were threatened, the focus was rather on bolstering political and economic ties with Ukraine. Ukraine’s Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk signed a political agreement on March 21 with EU leaders, which will pave the way for the integration of his country’s interests with Europe.
Fallout of competing sanctions
A full-blown western economic blockade may cripple Russia, but it will also have a singeing, blowback effect on Europe’s economy. Germany is likely to be hit the hardest in such an eventuality, a fact that explains German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s calls for diplomacy — and not sanctions — to resolve the conflict.
Russia is the EU’s third largest trading partner, a major energy supplier, and a hub of European business investment.
“If they go beyond these token measures, Russia will retaliate, and that could damage the European economy,” said Robert Oulds, Director of the Bruges Group, a Eurosceptic think tank based in London.
“Germany is heavily dependent on Russian oil and gas, and if Russia retaliates with its own sanctions, prices will go up, creating an economic shock that could spell disaster. The European economy is already in a deflationary crisis,” he added.
The EU is Russia’s primary trading partner, accounting for over 40 per cent of its trade. European exports to Russia include machinery and transport equipment, chemicals, medicines and agricultural products.
The EU imports nearly 80 per cent of Russia’s oil and natural gas exports, with Germany alone being the single biggest importer of oil and gas.
In an interview to Der Spiegel , Eckhard Cordes, Chairman of the Committee on Eastern European Economic Relations, is quoted as saying that 3,00,000 German jobs could be at risk if a situation of competing sanctions were to arise between the West and Russia.
“I am very worried that we are going to unleash a downward spiral of sanctions and counter-sanctions that won’t help anyone,” Mr. Cordes is quoted as saying.
More than 6,000 German companies are registered in Russia, and together they have invested €20 billion in recent years, the article says. These include corporate entities like Siemens, the German chemical giant BASF (that has holdings in Siberian gas fields), and the energy supplier E.ON, among others.
Russia has shrugged off the first wave of the West’s largely political sanctions.
The West may well be missing the fact that President Putin is willing to pay the costs for regaining Crimea. Moreover, the Russians also seem to be ready to endure the backlash of western sanctions, as more than 80 per cent of respondents in a poll last week said that Russia should embrace Crimea even if this provokes a backlash from other countries.
The assets freeze of select Russian individuals is likely to misfire since Mr. Putin, a year ago, ordered all government officials to close their bank accounts and sell off properties abroad.
However, the political stand-off with the West has increased the outflow of capital from Russia in the first two months of 2014 to $35 billion as against about $60 billion for the whole of last year.
Capital flight may rise to $200 billion this year and push the current account into the red, according to economist Igor Yurgens, deputy head of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs (RUIE). The Russian stock market has lost 17 per cent of its value in March and the rouble has continued to decline.
Massive economic sanctions would hit Russia much harder, experts have warned.
The threat of financial sanctions has already hampered access to western bank credit for Russian companies.
“Even though foreign markets are formally open, it is impossible for Russian borrowers to get financing,” said Alexei Marey of Russia’s top-league Alfa-Bank. “In the worst case scenario, foreign funding may be closed for Russian entities for one or two years.”
Pinching Russia
Russia is already bracing for possible sanctions. It is reported to have moved out of the U.S. last week more than half of its $200 billion worth of U.S. Treasury bonds.
Bloomberg, quoting U.S. Treasury data, reports that Russia is the 11th largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasury bonds totalling $138.6 billion at the end of last year. Russia has reportedly moved out more than half of these.
A comprehensive ban on financial transactions would freeze the assets of Russian companies in the West, estimated at $500 billion, and cut them off from western credit sources. This could lead to a Russian slowdown, from the expected 2.5 per cent to a mere one per cent or even zero growth, said former Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin.
Trade sanctions would be painful as imports account for 40 per cent of Russia’s consumption. The share of food imports reaches 50 per cent, but even Moscow, whose dependence on imported eatables is higher than the country’s average, says it can compensate for a possible shortfall in western supplies by stepping up purchases in the BRIC countries.
Russia would be particularly vulnerable to a ban on western high technologies that were to play a key role in government plans to modernise industry, including the defence sector. Russian arms exports could suffer, as high-tech weapon platforms, such as the Su-30MKI supplied to India, have key systems and components sourced from western manufacturers.
Moscow responded to the first round of U.S. sanctions with its own symbolic blacklist of U.S. officials who will be denied Russian visas, and the Russian Foreign Ministry said Russia’s response to further sanctions would be “harsh.”
Mr. Putin’s influential economic adviser, Sergei Glaziev, warned that in the event of U.S. economic sanctions Russia would dump American Treasuries, refuse to pay off loans to U.S. banks, drop the dollar as a reserve currency and create an alternative currency system.
In a television interview last week, Russia’s Economic Minister Alexei Ulyukayev confirmed that Russia would work to switch its foreign trade from dollars to national currencies.
“Why should we have dollar contracts with China, India, Turkey?” he asked. “Why do we need this? We must have contracts in national currencies. This should, above all, apply to our oil and gas companies.”
Western investments in Russia are estimated at over $240 billion and borrowing by Russian companies exceeds $700 billion abroad.
There is a consensus among the Russian expert community that sanctions will push Russia closer to China, in what could be a nightmarish scenario for the U.S. Russia may step up defence sales to China and reorient its energy exports from Europe to the East, a policy Russia launched several years ago with the construction of an oil pipeline to its Pacific coast and China.
EU seals closer ties with Ukraine
The EU welcomed Ukraine into the Western fold on Friday, signing the political provisions of a landmark accord.
European Union leaders agreed sanctions against top Russian politicians and stepped up efforts to cut the bloc’s debilitating energy dependence on Russia.
Signing the Association Accord “symbolises the importance both sides attach to this relationship... and the joint will to take it further,” EU president Hermann Van Rompuy told Ukraine interim premier Arseniy Yatsenyuk.
The EU was offering Ukraine its “steadfast support,” Mr. Van Rompuy said, promising help to get the country’s struggling economy back on track.
“We are sure that together we will succeed,” Mr. Yatsenyuk said after the European Union’s 28 heads of state and government signed the document.
After long talks in Brussels, EU leaders hit 12 more Russians with travel bans and asset freezes, bringing their list to 33. Among them was Russian Deputy Premier Dmitry Rogozin, who vehemently dismissed the measures. “All these sanctions aren’t worth a grain of sand of the Crimean land that returned to Russia,” Mr. Rogozin said in a tweet.
EU leaders also agreed on the need to fast-forward plans to cut the bloc’s energy dependency, notably on Russia which supplies more than a quarter of its natural gas, much of it in pipelines through Ukraine.
“Reducing our energy dependency, especially in relation to Russia, was a key topic” at the two-day summit, Mr. Van Rompuy said.
“If we don’t take action now, by 2035 we will be dependent for 80 percent of oil and gas,” he warned.
Many EU nations are heavily reliant on Russian energy and so the bloc is divided on how far it can go with economic sanctions.
For Prime Minister David Cameron of Britain, which imports virtually no Russian gas, it is of case of "Russia needs Europe more than EU needs Russia."
Other countries such as Hungary or Bulgaria are much more dependent and so are less confident to impose full economic sanctions.
Putin signs into law accession
President Vladimir Putin signed into law Crimea’s absorption into Russia as his defence chief dispelled concerns about Russia’s possible invasion of Eastern Ukraine.
Shortly after the Russian Parliament’s upper house on Friday ratified Crimea’s accession treaty, Mr. Putin signed the ratification act and a law creating two new administrative units in Russia: Crimea and separately, the city of Sevastopol, home to the Russian Black Sea Fleet.
It took the Kremlin less than a week to complete legal formalities for making Crimea a part of Russia following an overwhelming vote in Crimea last Sunday for breaking with Ukraine and rejoining Russia.
The Russian leader ordered festive fireworks in Crimea and Moscow to celebrate the region’s reunion with Russia.
Speaking at the signing ceremony in the Kremlin, Mr. Putin asked the government and the Parliament to ensure “smooth” integration of Crimea into Russia’s legal, economic and social system.
Russia has already started issuing its passports to Crimean residents. Authorities said all residents of Crimea will get Russian passports within three months, and those who do not wish to switch citizenship will be able to retain Ukrainian passports. Crimea will begin shifting to the Russia rouble within a week, but some shops already accept roubles. Crimean authorities said that from next month all salaries and pensions in the peninsula will be paid in roubles.
Meanwhile, Russia’s Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu told his U.S. counterpart Chuck Hagel in a telephone call on Thursday that Moscow had no plans to move troops into Ukraine’s Russian-speaking eastern regions.
Responding to Mr. Hagel’s concerns about Russian military movements near Ukraine’s border Mr. Shoigu said the Russian forces were not engaging in any “activity that threatens Ukraine’s security.”
The Kremlin on Friday announced plans to step up economic pressure on Ukraine even as the West is assembling an emergency aid package for Kiev.
Mr. Putin supported Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev’s proposal to demand that Ukraine pay back $11 billion in “advance” gas discounts Moscow had given Kiev under a 2010 agreement to extend the Russian lease of the Sevastopol naval base from 2017 to 2042. Mr. Medvedev said that together with Ukraine’s other debts Russia’s claims amount to $16 billion.
Moscow on Friday also threatened a painful backlash to new Western sanctions announced a day earlier.
Ukraine orders pullout of troops from Crimea
Ukraine has ordered the withdrawal of its armed forces from Crimea in what amounts to a de facto recognition of losing the region to Russia.
Interim President Oleksandr Turchynov told the Parliament on Monday that the Ukrainian troops and their families would be evacuated from Crimea in the face of “threats to the lives and health of our service personnel.”
The decision to pull out the remaining troops from Crimea came shortly after pro-Russian forces earlier in the day took over a Ukrainian marine base in the port city of Feodosia, about the last symbol of Ukraine’s military presence in the peninsula.
Crimean authorities said there were no Ukrainian forces left in Crimea.
“All Ukrainian servicemen have either sworn allegiance to Russia or are leaving the territory of Crimea,” Deputy Prime Minister Rustam Temirgaliyev told the Russian news agency RIA Novosti on Monday.
Ukrainian troops had been left in limbo in Crimea without any orders from Kiev after pro-Russian forces took control of the region four weeks ago.
The Russian Defence Ministry said on Sunday that the Russian flag had been raised over 189 Ukrainian military facilities in Crimea.
Russia’s Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu visited Crimea to inspect the Russian naval base in Sevastopol and to meet with the Ukrainian military.
He was quoted as telling Ukrainian servicemen that those of them who wished to serve in the Russian armed forces wound get the same pay and benefits as Russian military.
Meanwhile, Western leaders led by U.S. President Barack Obama gathered in The Hague on Monday to discuss the crisis in Ukraine.
“We’re united in imposing a cost on Russia for its actions so far,” Mr. Obama said on arrival in the Netherlands.
The leaders of the Group of Seven were scheduled to debate excluding Russia from the Group of Eight and slapping other sanctions against it at a meeting on the sidelines of a nuclear summit in The Hague.
Russia’s President Vladimir Putin has chosen not to attend the summit sending instead his Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.
With many European leaders resisting economic sanctions that could boomerang against their economies, the U.S. appears to be climbing down on its calls for harsher penalties.
In an interview to a Dutch newspaper on Monday, Mr. Obama said the West would go for more biting sanctions “if Russia continues to escalate the situation,” that is, extends its intervention beyond Crimea.
Ahead of his meeting in The Hague with Mr. Lavrov, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry expressed the hope that Russia would continue to cooperate in securing the destruction of Syria’s chemical weapons.
“All I can say is I hope the same motivations that drove Russia to be a partner in this effort will still exist,” Mr. Kerry said.
Reuters quoted U.S. officials as saying that any further sanctions against Russia “will need to be carefully calibrated to avoid bans on entire sectors, like oil or metals, that could reverberate through the global economy.”
The U.S. and its European allies have so far imposed a visa ban and assets freeze on a select group of Russian officials and Kremlin-linked businessmen, apart from cancelling a G8 summit in Sochi and suspending military ties and some political talks.
Russia has responded with its own blacklist of several U.S. officials.
Accord on international monitors for Ukraine
International monitors are being finally deployed in crisis-hit Ukraine after their mandate was modified to meet Russian objections.
The Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) approved a 100-strong mission for Ukraine on Friday in a consensus decision by its 57 members. Russia had demanded that the mission be deployed, not only in Russian-speaking south-eastern regions as proposed by Ukraine, but also in the country’s west, where far right groups have been asserting their authority. Russia had also objected to the mission’s mandate to cover Crimea, which on Friday was formally absorbed into Russia.
In the final version, the OSCE document says that the Kiev-based mission will be initially deployed for six months in nine places in eastern and western Ukraine. Its stated aim is to contribute to “reducing tensions and fostering peace, stability and security.” The OSCE Standing Committee may increase the mission strength to 500 monitors, deploy it to other places and extend its duration.
Crimea is not mentioned in the mandate, but the United States insisted it had the right to go to the peninsula. However, the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement on Saturday that the mission’s mandate “reflects the new political and legal realities and does not cover Crimea and Sevastopol, which have become part of Russia.”
The Russian Defence Ministry announced on Saturday that fewer than 2,000 of the more than 18,000 Ukrainian troops stationed in Crimea said they wanted to return to Ukraine and will be assisted in relocation. Russian flags have been raised on 54 out of 67 Ukrainian naval vessels, including eight combat ships and Ukraine’s only submarine. This would mean that Ukraine has lost almost its entire Navy. In a strong show of solidarity with the new government in Ukraine, two more Western leaders are visiting Ukraine over the weekend, Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper and German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier.
Meanwhile, the continuing standoff in eastern Ukraine between pro-Russian residents and Kiev-appointed administrations is threatening to escalate into a military confrontation. In a video posted online, a group of armed activists read out an address on behalf of a “United people’s militia of the Donetsk, Lugansk and Kharkiv regions” rejecting the “illegitimate” government in Kiev, demanding the withdrawal of Ukrainian armed forces from the three provinces and vowing to offer armed resistance to any “invasion” by government troops.
Lavrov reiterates need for greater autonomy
Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has again called for federalisation of Ukraine as a key condition for resolving the crisis in the former Soviet state.
Ahead of his talks with U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry in Paris late on Sunday, Mr. Lavrov said the main difference between Russia and the U.S. was whether Ukraine’s Russian-speaking regions should have autonomy from the government in Kiev.
In an interview to Russia’s state run TV Channel One on Sunday, he said the Western powers wanted Russia to engage Ukraine in direct talks, while the West would “supervise” these talks through a “contact group”.
This was “unacceptable” because Ukraine’s troubles were rooted, not in its relations with Russia, but in its “deep crisis of statehood.”
Direct talks pointless
Moscow sees no point in direct talks with Kiev because the Ukrainian leaders have rejected Russia’s key demand — transforming Ukraine from a unitary state into a federation of autonomous regions.
Mr. Lavrov said that Russia has proposed setting up “a Ukraine support group”, together with the U.S. and the European Union, in order to promote a dialogue among Ukraine’s different political forces and regions on a “new Constitution of Ukraine that would establish a federative system, affirm its non-bloc status and guarantee the rights of all those who live in Ukraine — we are concerned of course above all about Russians, but also Czech, Hungarians, Germans and other ethnic groups.”
Mr. Lavrov and Mr. Kerry hastily arranged their meeting in Paris following Russian President Vladimir Putin’s call to U.S. President Barack Obama late on Friday. Thousands of demonstrators in Kharkiv, in Ukraine’s Russian-speaking south-east, again took to the streets on Sunday to demand a referendum on greater autonomy. A similar rally took place in Donetsk, a mining centre in eastern Ukraine.
Ukraine: agreement on need for reform
Russia and the United States have agreed to work for a diplomatic solution in the Ukraine crisis through an “inclusive constitutional reform,” the two country’s top diplomats said after their meeting in Paris.
Emerging from four-hour talks at the Russian embassy in the French capital late on Sunday, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry summed up the essence of their agreement in remarkably identical statements even though they spoke at separate press encounters. After stating that Russia and the U.S. differed on the causes of the crisis in Ukraine, Mr. Lavrov and Mr. Kerry said they had agreed on the importance of “finding a diplomatic solution” towards four priority goals: assure minority and language rights; disarm irregulars and provocateurs; launch an inclusive constitutional reform; hold free and fair elections. The verbatim identical statements would suggest Mr. Lavrov and Mr. Kerry had put their agreement in writing. While the constitutional reform came closer to the end of the announced list of priorities, it is clearly by far the most important part of the Russian-American agreement. However, as often is the case with such agreements, the devil is in the detail.
Moscow and Washington seem to have different views on what should be the end result of the constitutional reform process. Mr. Lavrov stated in no uncertain terms that Ukraine should transform itself from a unitary state into a federation with broad autonomy rights for its regions. Mr. Kerry, for his part, insisted that it is up to Ukrainians to decide “what kind of definitions work for them.”
Mr. Lavrov, while agreeing that “nobody can impose any configuration on Ukrainians,” made it clear that federalisation was the only way to prevent Ukraine from splitting along the east-west fault lines. The U.S. opposes the federal structure for Ukraine for the same reason as Kiev does — the reform would give Russian-speaking eastern and southern regions veto power over a possible decision by the central government to join NATO or the European Union (EU).
Russia scraps final gas discount for Ukraine
Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said on Thursday he has scrapped the last discount on gas price granted by Moscow to Ukraine, effectively raising the price by $100 to $485 for every 1,000 cubic metres.
“I am taking the decision to denounce the government decree from 30 April 2010,” Mr. Medvedev said, referring to the discount on Russia granted to its neighbour in exchange for keeping its Black Sea Fleet facilities in Crimea’s port of Sevastopol.
The decision means that “the price on gas for Ukraine is automatically... going up and will be $485 for 1000 cm starting in April,” Gazprom chief Alexei Miller told Mr. Medvedev as the two were shown meeting on state television. Mr. Putin on Wednesday ended Russia’s agreements with Ukraine over the status of its Black Sea fleet, which had been based in Sevastopol since the tsarist era. Moscow has in recent weeks annexed the peninsula.
Russia has repeatedly shown readiness to use gas as a lever in conflicts with Ukraine, which remains dependent on imports from its resource-rich former Soviet master to keep the country running. Thursday’s price hike came just two days after Moscow got rid of another discount that was in place since December.
Explosive charges
Earlier, Ukraine’s new Western-backed leaders on Thursday blamed Russian agents and the ousted pro-Kremlin President for organising two days of carnage in Kiev that killed nearly 90 supporters of closer EU ties. The explosive allegations were levelled only moments before Russia responded to the new course taken by its ex-Soviet neighbour by hiking the price it must pay for gas shipments.
The furious battle for Ukraine’s future between Moscow and the West has exposed the deep divide that splits the nation of 46 million between those who see themselves as either culturally tied to Russia and or a part of a broader Europe.
Those tensions exploded on February 18 when gunshots in the heart of snow-swept Kiev heralded the onset of pitched battles between riot police and protesters — some armed with nothing more than metal shields — that left scores dead.
Both sides have blamed the other for starting the violence. But no formal probe results had been unveiled in Kiev until acting Interior Minister Arsen Avakov presented his initial findings to reporters on Thursday.
The acting Interior Minister said that deposed President Viktor Yanukovych had issued the “criminal order” to fire at the protesters while agents from Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) helped him plan and carry out the assault.
An FSB spokesman told Russia’s state-run RIA Novosti news agency that Ukraine’s allegations were patently false.
In another move, NASA has cut ties with Russia except for cooperation aboard the International Space Station due to the crisis in Ukraine, the U.S. space agency said Wednesday.
Ambassador summoned
Meanwhile, Germany’s ambassador to Russia was summoned by the Russian Foreign Ministry over remarks by Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble likening Russian moves in Crimea to Nazi Germany, the ministry said on Thursday.
Mr. Schaeuble had said Russia’s annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea region were reminiscent of Adolf Hitler’s aggression in 1938 that led to the annexation of German-speaking regions of Czechoslovakia. — AFP, Reuters
Activists in Donetsk proclaim independence
Pro-Russia activists in the eastern Ukrainian city of Donetsk have proclaimed independence from Ukraine and asked Russia to send in troops to protect them from the government in Kiev.
Protesters who had occupied the regional government headquarters in Donetsk on Sunday set up a People’s Council of Donetsk and voted unanimously on Monday to break away from Ukraine and form “the sovereign state of the People’s Republic of Donetsk.” The self-proclaimed Council decided to call a referendum on splitting from Ukraine and joining Russia before May 11, that is ahead of Ukrainian presidential elections set for May 25.
“The Donetsk Republic is to be created within the administrative borders of the Donetsk region. This decision will come into effect after the referendum,” the activists said in a statement. In a separate address to Russian President Vladimir Putin, the Donetsk Council asked him to deploy a temporary peacekeeping force to the region. “Without your support and the support of Russia it will be hard for us to stand against the junta in Kiev,” said the address.
Pro-Russia demonstrators have set up barricades of car tires and razor wire in front of the government headquarters in Donetsk to guard it against a possible assault by security forces. Donetsk activists said they were coordinating their referendum plans with pro-Russia forces in Kharkiv and Lugansk, where government buildings had been also seized on Sunday.
In Lugansk, members of the so-called “Army of the South-East” captured the regional security service building and its arsenal — hundreds of firearms. “If our demand of a referendum is not met we will begin armed resistance. We have 20,000 armed men and can recruit more if need be,” activist Alexei Relkin told Russian television.
Donetsk, Kharkiv and Lugansk, the main industrial centres of Ukraine, have become focal points of anti-government protests following the power takeover in Kiev by pro-Western forces and Crimea’s absorption by Russia.
Ukraine’s Acting President Oleksandr Turchynov denounced the unrest in the east as a “second stage” of Russia’s Crimea-like “special operation” to dismember Ukraine. Mr. Turchynov said local security forces were “passive” in dealing with the protests and promised to send police reinforcements to carry out “anti-terrorist operations.”
Acting Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk told a Cabinet meeting on Monday that there was “a plan to destabilise the situation” in order to pave the way “for foreign forces to cross the border and seize territory.”
Ukraine’s Russian-speaking south-eastern regions have for weeks demanded greater autonomy from Kiev, but the new authorities have flatly rejected federalisation. “Any call toward federalisation is an attempt to destroy the Ukrainian state,” Mr. Yatsenyuk said on Monday. Russia’s Foreign Ministry on Monday condemned Kiev’s stand as “irresponsible” and warned that without federalisation Ukraine will limp from crisis to crisis.
Russia warns Ukraine
Russia warned Ukraine’s authorities that the use of force to suppress protests in the Russian-speaking eastern regions could trigger civil war. Moscow voiced particular concern over the deployment in the east of “about 150” American mercenaries from the Greystone private army disguised as Ukrainian military personnel.
“We are calling for the immediate cessation of any military preparations, which are fraught with unleashing civil war,” the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement on Tuesday.
The United States, for its part, accused Russia of orchestrating the unrest in south-eastern Ukraine to create a pretext for an invasion. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry blamed Moscow’s “special forces and agents” for stoking the pro-Russia protests that “could potentially be a contrived pretext for military intervention just as we saw in Crimea”. Mr. Kerry said the U.S. would slap sanctions against Russian energy and mining industry, as well as banks if Moscow did not stop interfering in Ukraine.
Kiev has reportedly sent army and national guard forces to eastern Ukraine to quell the protests. On Monday, protesters in Donetsk and Kharkiv proclaimed their regions’ independence from Ukraine and called for a referendum to join Russia. Late on Monday, Ukrainian security forces evicted pro-Russian protesters from the local government headquarters in Kharkiv and the Ukrainian security service building in Donetsk, which had been captured on Sunday, the government in Kiev announced.
However, protesters continued to occupy the government building in Donetsk and the security service headquarters in Lugansk. The protesters in Lugansk have armed themselves with firearms seized from the security service arsenal.
Ukraine’s Interior Minister Arsen Avakov said on Tuesday about 70 “separatists” had been detained in Kharkiv.
Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov called U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier to press the need for a “deep and transparent constitutional reform involving all political forces and regions” that would make Ukraine a federative non-bloc state.
Mr. Lavrov said Moscow was ready to take part in four-party talks over the crisis with Ukraine, the European Union (EU) and the U.S. proposed by Mr Kerry. However, he said protesters from Ukraine’s eastern regions should also take part in the talks and their agenda should include a constitutional reform in Ukraine. He also angrily rejected U.S. claims of a Moscow hand in the protests in Ukraine’s eastern regions.
Ukraine threatens to shoot protesters
Security forces will “shoot to kill” if pro-Russian protesters in eastern Ukraine refuse to clear the government buildings they occupied four days ago, a senior Ukrainian official said on Thursday.
Hundreds of protesters holed up in the Security Service office in Lugansk and the local government headquarters in Donetsk are demanding a referendum on self-government for Ukraine’s Russian-speaking south-eastern regions.
The deputy head of Ukraine’s presidential administration, Andrei Senchenko, told reporters in Kiev that they have been given a Thursday ultimatum.
Kiev on Wednesday issued an ultimatum to the protesters to disarm and leave the seized offices within 48 hours or face the storming by the military.
Acting President Oleksandr Turchynov on Thursday said he had spoken to protesters in Lugansk promising not to prosecute them if they give up their arms and free seized buildings.
However, he rejected the proposal by Communist lawmakers to adopt a law guaranteeing amnesty to the pro-Russian protesters similar to the amnesty granted to pro-Western protesters in Kiev in February.
Mr. Turchynov also promised to consider expanding the rights of regional legislatures and to conduct an international probe into the killings of dozens of civilians and police during the protests.
Agenda for talks
Efforts to set up four-party Foreign Minister talks between Russia, the United States, the European Union (EU) and Ukraine to discuss the crisis in eastern Ukraine are gathering momentum.
Late on Wednesday, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry spoke twice with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to discuss the agenda for such talks.
Russia insists the talks should focus on a constitutional reform to make Ukraine a federative state.
Meanwhile, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland accused Russian intelligence agencies of planning and executing the takeovers of government buildings in eastern Ukraine.
Russia had levelled exactly the same charges against the U.S. over its role in the overthrow of Ukrainian President Victor Yanukovych in February.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned European leaders that Ukraine’s delays in paying for Russian gas have created a “critical situation” that could affect deliveries of gas to Europe.
In a letter to European leaders, Mr. Putin said that if Ukraine does not settle its energy bill, Gazprom will be forced to switch to advance payment, and if those payments are not made, it “will completely or partially cease gas deliveries.”
Ukraine commandos refuse to storm buildings
Ukraine’s leaders appear to have backed away from threats to use force to crush pro-Russian protests in the country’s eastern regions amid reports that elite anti-terror commandos refused to storm the buildings seized by the protesters.
The deadline set by Kiev for the protesters to free the occupied government offices in Donetsk and Lugansk expired on Friday morning, with security forces making no attempt to storm the buildings.
Acting Interior Minister Arsen Avakov had earlier pledged to clear the buildings within 48 hours.
According to Ukrainian media reports, the elite Alfa counter-terrorism group has refused to attack the protesters.
“We will act strictly according to law,” Alfa commandos were reported to have said. “Our group has been set up to free hostages and combat terrorism.”
Acting Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk promised to grant more powers to the regions, including the right to hold local referendums.
“In the framework of the changed constitution, we will be able to satisfy specific requests of every single region,” Mr. Yatsenyuk said at a meeting with the Governors and other officials of Ukraine’s eastern and southern regions in Donetsk on Friday.
New Constitution
Mr. Yatsenyuk did not spell out details of the proposed reforms and his vague promise is unlikely to mollify the protesters. The Ukrainian government plans to unveil the new Constitution on April 15, but it has flatly rejected the protesters’ demand of federalisation of Ukraine.
Mr. Yatsenyuk refused to meet with the protesters during his one-day visit to Donetsk on Friday but promised to have a televised call-in conference with its residents.
The protesters in Donetsk, Lugansk and Kharkiv initially demanded self-rule for Ukraine’s eastern industrial heartland, but after Kiev rejected their demands, they vowed to split from Ukraine and join Russia through a referendum similar to the one held in Crimea last month.
Acting President Oleksandr Turchynov has offered immunity from prosecution for hundreds of protesters holed up in government offices in Donetsk and Lugansk if they clear the seized buildings but the activists refused to climb down. On Thursday, they received reinforcements from local coal mines.
No annexation plans
Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that Russia has no plans to annex Ukraine’s south-eastern regions.
“We do not and cannot have such ambitions. This would go against Russia’s fundamental interests,” Mr. Lavrov said in a TV interview on Friday.
“We want Ukraine to be united in its current borders, but with full respect for its regions. We call it federation, but we do not insist on using this term.
“The main thing for Ukraine is to carry out a constitutional reform with the participation of all its regions and to hold presidential, parliamentary and local elections on this basis, so that the regions elect their own legislatures and governors,” the Russian Foreign Minister said.
He expressed the hope that Mr. Yatsenyuk will honour his promise of reforms.
“It’s a good thing Yatsenyuk has visited the southeast… He should have done it much earlier, as we’ve been telling your American and European partners,” Mr. Lavrov said.
Revolt spreads in Ukraine
The rebellion against the new pro-Western leaders in Kiev is spreading across Russian-speaking eastern Ukraine, with government offices seized on Saturday in two more cities in Donetsk region.
Pro-Russian protesters on Saturday occupied police headquarters in Slaviansk, an industrial city of 137,000 residents, just over 100 km from Donetsk, a focal point of anti-Kiev protests.
Acting Interior Minister Arsen Avakov vowed to give a “very harsh” response to the seizure, saying he had ordered Donetsk riot police to clear the building.
However, Donetsk police refused to obey the orders and hours later hundreds of protesters seized the municipal government building and the Security Service SBU office in Slaviansk.
The protesters replaced the Ukrainian blue and yellow flag on the city hall with the Russian red, white and blue flag.
The Mayor of Slaviansk Nelya Shtepa said the takeover was peaceful and voiced solidarity with the protesters.
“All residents of Slaviansk have taken to the streets today [Saturday] to support the activists,” Ms. Shtepa was quoted as saying by the Slavgorod city website. “They are demanding a referendum [on autonomy] and we all support this demand.”
Later on Saturday protesters seized the police headquarters in Krasny Liman, a town of about 30,000 people 130 km from Donetsk.
Pro-Russian protesters have been occupying government buildings in Donetsk and Lugansk in Ukraine’s eastern industrial heartland since Sunday.
Authorities in Kiev threatened to use force to dislodge the protesters, but security forces reportedly refused to storm the seized buildings.
Acting Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk on Friday visited Donetsk to promise more powers to the regions, but reiterated Kiev’s refusal to transform Ukraine from a unitary state into a federation, which is the key demand of the protesters.
Moscow has warned Kiev not to use force against the pro-Russian protesters in eastern Ukraine.
Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told his Ukrainian counterpart Andrii Deshchytsia that Kiev’s threats to storm the occupied buildings in Donetsk and Lugansk were “unacceptable” and urged the Ukrainian authorities to resolve the standoff “peacefully, through dialogue and taking full heed of the legitimate demands of Ukraine’s south and southeast, including direct involvement of these regions in the constitutional reform,” the Foreign Ministry said on its website.
Mr. Lavrov rejected the Ukrainian Minister’s claim that Russian agents were engaged in “provocative activities” in eastern Ukraine and some of them had been detained. “There are no grounds whatsoever for such allegations,” the Russian Foreign Minister said, adding that Washington had levelled similar charges but failed to produce any proof.
Ukraine unveils reform roadmap
Ukraine’s pro-Western leaders have vowed to devolve power to the regions and to guarantee language rights to Russian speakers under a broad constitutional reform.
In a joint TV address to the nation, Acting President Oleksandr Turchynov and Acting Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk laid out their plans for implementing the agreements to defuse the Ukraine crisis reached in Geneva on Thursday by the Foreign Ministers of Russia, the United States, the European Union and Ukraine.
“The Ukrainian government is ready for full-fledged constitutional reform, which will secure powers of the regions, abolish regional and district state administrations and allow people to elect instead respective councils and executive committees,” said Mr. Yatsenyuk.
The amended Constitution will also “accord special status to the Russian language” in Russian-speaking regions, Mr. Yatsenyuk stated.
Mr. Turchynov said the government had submitted a draft to the Ukrainian Parliament that would grant “immunity from criminal and administrative prosecution” to protesters provided they surrender their weapons.
The Ukrainian leaders gave no timeframe for the proposed reforms, but earlier Mr. Yatsenyuk called for a nation-wide discussion of the constitutional reform by October 1.
Surrender of arms
Kiev’s views on constitutional reforms are broadly in line with what has been agreed upon in Geneva. However, its interpretation of another key demand — for “all illegal armed groups” to lay down their arms and clear “all illegally occupied streets, squares and other public places” — is glaringly different from Russia’s reading of the Geneva accords. Ukraine’s Acting Foreign Minister Andriy Deshchytsia said the call to vacate occupied buildings was not addressed to protesters in Kiev’s Maidan Square because their presence there was “legal.”
Far right groups who clashed with police in Kiev in February have refused to surrender their weapons and still occupy some government buildings in the capital. Russia takes the stand that disarming the nationalist radicals must be a top priority for Kiev. “It is clear that when we talk about disarmament, we mean first of all confiscating weapons from the militants of the Right Sector and other pro-fascist groups,” the Russian Foreign Ministry said on Friday.
Moscow promised to give “the widest possible support” to efforts by Ukrainians in interaction with European monitors to resolve the crisis.
At the same time, the Russian Foreign Ministry lashed out at the U.S. for seeking to “whitewash” the use of force by Ukrainian authorities against antigovernment protesters in Ukraine’s Russian-speaking eastern provinces. U.S. President Barack Obama has threatened to impose additional sanctions against Russia unless there is progress within days in disarming pro-Russian protesters. Moscow called such threats “completely unacceptable.”
The protesters in eastern Ukraine have flatly refused to back down till Kiev withdraws its military and vowed to hold a referendum on their regions’ status on May 11.
On Friday, protesters peacefully took control of yet another city in eastern Ukraine, Seversk in Donetsk region.
There have been no clashes in the past two days as Kiev put its “anti-terrorist operation” on hold for the Easter holidays.
Six killed as Easter truce is broken
Six people have been reported killed in a gun-battle
near Sloviansk in the worst violence in eastern Ukraine over the seven
weeks of protests against the pro-Western government in Kiev.
The
deaths occurred during a night attack presumably by anti-Russian
radicals on a checkpoint, being manned by locals — unarmed after the
Easter truce jointly declared by Kiev and the protesters — on the
outskirts of Sloviansk in the Donetsk Region, protesters told Russian TV
channels. A convoy of four SUV cars drove by the checkpoint and opened
fire.
About 20 militia men who drove from Sloviansk
killed three attackers and captured two of their cars, eyewitnesses
said. The other assailants fled in the remaining two cars.
Kiev
said no military operations had been conducted in the region at the
time of the incident. It described Sloviansk, which is controlled by the
protesters, as “the most dangerous place in Ukraine.”
Russian
television showed a medallion with paramilitary symbols of the neo-Nazi
Right Sector group from western Ukraine, and a business card of its
leader, Dmitry Yarosh, found in the captured cars along with a machine
gun, a U.S.-made night-vision device, bullet-proof vests and a lot of
ammunition.
‘Russian provocation’
The Right Sector denied the group’s involvement in the attack and alleged it was a “provocation by Russian special forces”.
Protesters’
leader Vyacheslav Ponomaryev ordered a curfew in Sloviansk and called
on Russia to send peacekeepers to protect local citizens from further
attacks.
The Russian Foreign Ministry expressed
outrage at the attack and demanded that Kiev deliver on its commitment
to de-escalate the violence.
The deadly shootout
occurred two days after Russia, the U.S., the European Union and Ukraine
agreed on a roadmap to defuse tension through disarmament of “illegal
armed groups” and delegation of more power to Russian-speaking regions.
Kiev violating Geneva accord: Russia
Russia has accused Ukrainian authorities of “flagrantly” violating the Geneva peace accord and vowed to “thwart” attempts to unleash civil conflict in Ukraine’s Russian-speaking southeast.
“Those who seized power in Kiev are taking steps that flagrantly violate the Geneva agreement,” said Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.
“The authorities are doing nothing, not even lifting a finger, to address the root causes behind this deep internal crisis in Ukraine.”
Mr. Lavrov denounced as “unacceptable” Kiev’s claims that the Geneva call for all irregulars to disarm and vacate seized building did not apply to armed neo-Nazi militants of the Right Sector, who still occupy government offices in Kiev.
Referring to the “outrageous” attack by extremists on unarmed protesters near Sloviansk on Sunday, in which six people were killed, Mr. Lavrov said that the authorities in Kiev “cannot and maybe do not want to control the extremists.”
On Sunday, police pulled out the bodies of two pro-Russian protesters from a river in Sloviansk.
The city’s “people’s mayor” Vyacheslav Ponomaryov, said the men had been tortured and stabbed to death by members of the Right Sector, who hours earlier had attacked a militia road block outside Sloviansk.
The protesters have refused to disarm till Kiev pulls back troops and paramilitary radicals from Ukraine’s southeast and agrees to a referendum on the region’s greater autonomy from the central government.
Mr. Lavrov’s broadside came as U.S. Vice-President Joe Biden arrived in Kiev in a high-profile gesture of support for Ukraine’s pro-Western government.
“We are extremely concerned that instead of recognising their responsibility for what is happening [in eastern Ukraine], the Kiev authorities and their patrons, those who have brought them to power — above all the U.S. and Western European countries, are going out of the way to blame Russia,” Mr. Lavrov said.
‘In a tight spot’
The Russian Foreign Minister hinted that Russia may have to react to appeals for help from pro-Russian protesters in Ukraine’s southeast.
Conceding that these appeals “put us in a tight spot,” Mr. Lavrov nevertheless stated that Russia would not let Ukraine slip into civil war.
“Those who are deliberately pushing for a civil war, apparently in an attempt to start a big, serious bloody conflict, are pursuing a criminal policy. We will not only condemn this policy but will also thwart it.”
Ukraine’s ousted President Viktor Yanukovych has called for “immediate removal” of the Ukrainian military from eastern Ukraine and “immediate launch of peaceful dialogue” with the eastern leaders.
Kiev’s anti-terror operation flops
Ukraine's military operation against anti-government protesters in the Russian-speaking east of the country appears to be unravelling into a messy flop.
The very first attempt by the Ukrainian security forces to make a show of force ended in an embarrassing fiasco, with pro-Russian militia taking over their armoured vehicles.
Paratroopers’ defection
The “anti-terrorist operation” announced by Kiev two days ago, went into an active phase on Wednesday with a column of airborne, armoured, combat vehicles rolling into Kramatorsk, a town in the rebellious Donetsk region. However, paramilitary protesters who control the town stopped the column and persuaded the paratroopers to switch sides.
Flying the Russian flag, the column drove to the city of Sloviansk, a stronghold of protests some 20 km away, and parked outside the city hall occupied by militia.
“When we saw that they are not terrorists or separatists, but peaceful residents who confront us, we decided we will not fight them,” a serviceman told the Russian RIA Novosti news agency.
TV footage from Sloviansk showed about a dozen armoured vehicles flying the Russian national flag and the flag of the Russian airborne forces neatly ranked in front of the city hall.
Later on Wednesday militia leaders in Sloviansk said about 300 paratroopers agreed to lay down their arms and leave the city, while another 60 joined the protesters.
Struggling to explain the humiliating loss of face, defence officials in Kiev first said it was a clever ruse by the military to infiltrate the “terrorists,” then argued that the vehicles were a Russian invading force, before finally admitting that six of its armoured personnel carriers had been seized by pro-Russian “separatists” with the help of “Russian agents.”
Reports of a gun battle on Tuesday at an airfield near Kramatorsk, in which several people had been killed, were not confirmed.
Ahead of crucial four-party talks on the Ukraine crisis in Geneva on Thursday, Russian President Vladimir Putin told German Chancellor Angela Merkel on telephone that “the sharp aggravation of the conflict has put [Ukraine] on the brink of civil war.”
Both leaders stressed the importance of the coming talks between the Foreign Ministers of Russia, the United States, the European Union and Ukraine in Geneva.
Mr. Putin and Ms. Merkel “expressed the hope that the meeting in Geneva will send a clear signal to help bring the situation into a peaceful channel.”
Kiev showed no sign of backing away from a military crackdown on pro-Russian protesters. On Wednesday, the Ukrainian Parliament at a closed door session approved government plans for the “anti-terrorist operation” in the east.
Meanwhile, the lawmakers of Transdniester, a Russian-speaking breakaway region of Moldova that borders southern Ukraine, have asked Russia to recognise their independence.
In a letter to Mr. Putin, the lawmakers referred to a referendum held in Transdniester in 2006, in which 97 per cent of the region’s residents voted for independence from Moldova.
Russia has so far refused to recognise Transdniester’s separation from Moldova and has partnered the U.S. and the EU in efforts to heal the split.
Kiev calls off advance on Sloviansk
Kiev has halted its crackdown on pro-Russian protesters in eastern Ukraine in the face of Russia’s stern warnings of military intervention.
The Ukrainian forces’s advance on the rebel-held city of Sloviansk on Thursday was called off shortly after Russia announced large-scale war games on the border with Ukraine.
For the first time in recent history of the Russian armed forces the Defence Ministry said it was launching a military drill because of an “aggravation of the situation” in a neighbouring country.
A ranking Ukrainian government official told the Interfax news agency that the military assault on Sloviansk had been halted due to “a high risk of Russian troops crossing the Ukrainian border.”
Ukraine’s Acting Defence Minister Mikhail Koval said Russian troops had advanced within one kilometre of the border, while Ukrainian journalists claimed they could even read “Peacekeeping Force” signs painted on the Russian armour.
Russia’s United Nations envoy Vitaly Churkin confirmed that military intervention was a last option.
“The Federation Council has given the Russian President a mandate to use armed forces on the territory of Ukraine. This opportunity is always there. But, of course, we would rather not avail of it,” Mr. Churkin said on Rossiya 1 TV channel on Thursday evening.
Kiev on Friday announced a “second phase” of its “anti-terrorist operation” in the east.
‘No storming’
“There will be no storming of Sloviansk. We have decided to completely blockade the city to prevent the terrorists from receiving reinforcements and avert casualties among peaceful civilians,” Sergei Pashinsky, acting head of the Ukrainian presidential administration, said at a press briefing in Kiev.
However, anti-government protesters did not rule out that the Ukrainian military would try to storm the city again.
“They have encircled Sloviansk and are trying to infiltrate Right Sector militants into the city to support their assault,” Vyacheslav Ponomarev, “people’s mayor” of Sloviansk, told a press conference on Friday.
Copter destroyed
Meanwhile, protesters on Friday destroyed a Ukrainian army helicopter and a small aircraft with a rocket grenade launcher at an airfield in Kramatorsk, about 20 km from Sloviansk. Kiev acknowledged the attack.
The escalation of tension in eastern Ukraine has undermined the chances of the April 17 Geneva peace agreement negotiated by Russia, the United States, the European Union and Ukraine. The accord called for an end to violence by all sides and disarmament of all militants.
The United States and Russia have blamed each other for lack of progress in implementing the Geneva roadmap.
West planning sanctions
U.S. President Barack Obama said on Friday that the U.S. and Europe were preparing sanctions against broad sections of the Russian economy if Moscow mounts a military incursion into Ukraine.
Russia’s charge
Moscow, in turn, has accused Washington of encouraging Kiev to use force against the pro-Russian protesters.
“Washington should force the current Ukrainian leaders to immediately stop the military operation in the southeast and pull back the military and security forces,” the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement issued late on Thursday.
“We hope Washington fully realises its responsibility for what is going on.”
Obama slaps sanctions on Putin’s inner circle
Russia vows to retaliate, says response will be painful
The Ukraine crisis saw tensions escalate dramatically on Monday as Washington announced a slew of additional sanctions on the inner circle of Russian President Vladimir Putin, including the Deputy Prime Minister, a senior staffer of Mr. Putin’s executive office, the director of a top Russian security agency, the chairman of a State Duma Committee, and the head of the state oil company Rosneft.
Speaking in the Philippines during a whistle-stop tour of East Asian nations, President Barack Obama said that his goal was, “not to go after Mr. Putin, personally, [but to] change his calculus with respect to how the current actions that he is engaging in Ukraine could have an adverse impact on the Russian economy over the long haul.”
Even as Mr. Obama urged Mr. Putin to “actually walk the walk and not just talk the talk when it comes to diplomatically resolving the crisis in Ukraine,” the White House said the latest round of sanctions would, in addition to imposing an asset freeze on the seven individuals close to Mr. Putin, target 17 companies in his inner circle with asset freezes, visa bans and export restrictions for high-technology items.
The White House Press Secretary said the U.S. and its allies were unified in its position that “Russia must cease its illegal intervention and provocative actions in Ukraine,” and Washington remained prepared to impose still greater costs on Moscow if the Russian leadership “continues these provocations instead of de-escalating the situation, consistent with its Geneva commitments.”
Meanwhile, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said: “We will, of course, respond … We are certain that this response will have a painful effect on Washington. We are disgusted with the statement issued by the White House Press Secretary.” Every word used in it, he added, “confirms that the U.S. has completely lost touch with reality …”
Moscow to give peace another chance
Russia hopes to initiate peace talks in coming days between Ukrainian authorities and rebellious eastern regions even as Kiev presses on with its military crackdown on anti-government protesters.
“I think new efforts will be undertaken in the next few days to bring to the negotiating table Kiev’s authorities and representatives of the southeast in order to resolve problems that cause suffering and death in different parts of Ukraine,” said Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin, who looks after the former Soviet states.
The statement came hours after Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and German Foreign Minister Frank Walter Steinmeier discussed the possibility of Ukrainian talks on the phone.
Moscow said the two Ministers agreed “to assist in launching an equal dialogue” between Kiev and eastern rebels “on practical steps” to implement the Geneva accord. The talks are to be mediated by the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE).
According to the Russian Foreign Ministry, Mr. Steinmeier “agreed with the need to immediately halt violence and begin implementing the agreements under the Geneva declaration of April 17.”
The Geneva accord called for an end to violence by all sides, disarmament of irregulars, and an “inclusive” constitutional reform Ukraine acceptable to all regions.
However, shortly afterwards, Kiev moved the army and the national guard against the protesters in Ukraine’s Russian-speaking southeast. Ukrainian authorities and protesters gave conflicting reports on Sunday on the situation in the Donetsk Region, which has been the flashpoint of armed confrontation in recent days.
Kiev claimed to have retaken Kramatorsk and a few smaller towns on Saturday while rebels said that overnight they restored control over the towns.
In Odessa hundreds of residents forced their way into a police station and secured the release of a majority of anti-government protesters arrested following deadly clashes with nationalist radicals on Friday in which 46 people died.
Ukraine’s Acting Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk, who visited Odessa on Sunday, accused Russia and “pro-Russian separatists” of waging “a real war, a war to destroy Ukraine and its independence.”
Moscow said Kiev was “incapable of setting up dialogue without outside help.”
AFP adds:
OSCE head, Swiss President Didier Burkhalter, will visit Moscow on Wednesday for talks on the crisis in Ukraine, the Kremlin said. Mr. Burkhalter will fly to Moscow on May 7, the Kremlin said in a statement after President Vladimir Putin spoke by phone with German Chancellor Angela Merkel. — AFP
Protesters reject Putin’s call
Decide to go ahead with Sunday referendum
Rebels in eastern Ukraine have refused to postpone a referendum on their regions’ future despite a call from Russia’s President Vladimir Putin. The coordinating councils of the self-proclaimed People’s Republics of Donetsk and Luhansk unanimously voted on Thursday to go ahead with the vote on Sunday as planned.
“The ongoing military operation by Ukrainian forces and the slaughter of protesters in Odessa have heightened people’s resolve to vote on Sunday,” protesters’ leader Denis Pushilin told reporters in Donetsk.
Four-point plan
On Wednesday, Mr. Putin called on anti-government protesters in Ukraine to postpone the referendum in order to facilitate dialogue on autonomy with Kiev. He also urged Ukrainian authorities to call off their “punitive” operation in the east.
Mr. Putin backed a four-point peace plan for Ukraine proposed by Swiss President Didier Burkhalter, who is rotating head of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe. The plan called for ceasefire, de-escalation of tension, the launching of dialogue and elections in Ukraine.
However, Kiev on Thursday vowed to press on with its military crackdown irrespective of whether the referendum is adjourned.
“We must defend the territorial integrity of our country and free the temporary occupied territories [in Crimea],” Acting President Oleksandr Turchynov said, according to his press service.
Kiev’s reaction has hardened the protesters’ stance. “People don’t trust Ukrainian authorities and Kiev’s reaction was inadequate,” said Miroslav Rudenko, a leader of the Donetsk self-defence forces.
Sovereignty question
The question on the referendum ballot is: “Do you support the act of proclamation of sovereignty for the Donetsk People’s Republic?” In Luhansk, the question is identical.
Organisers said the ambiguous phrasing was intentional to allow them to decide whether to push for independence, greater autonomy within Ukraine or unification with Russia, depending on how things turn out after the vote.
International efforts have done little to reduce tension between Russia and the West over the Ukraine crisis.
Mr. Putin on Thursday presided over Russia’s largest yet command and control exercises, which, he said, involved “all branches and services of the armed forces across the entire territory of Russia.”
NATO on Tuesday launched a record 6,000-strong military exercises in Estonia close to the Russian border, while NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander General Philip Breedlove called for permanent stationing of troops in Eastern Europe in the face of Russia’s “actions and military escalation” in Crimea.
U.S. President Barack Obama on Wednesday announced removing Russia from a list of countries whose exports enjoy preferential treatment. The White House said the move was “particularly appropriate” in the light of Russia’s actions in Ukraine.
At the same time the U.S. government has asked the courts to lift a ban on purchases of Russian missile engines that power U.S. heavy-duty Atlas 5 missiles.
The ban on the import of Russian RD-180 engines threatened to stop launches of U.S. military and spy satellite, as well as NASA scientific probes.
Sevastopol: President Vladimir Putin flew in to Crimea on Friday, marking the Soviet victory in WWII and proclaiming the success of the peninsula’s seizure from a Ukraine that Russia said has been taken over by fascists.
In east Ukraine, where pro-Moscow activists plan a referendum on Sunday to follow Crimea in breaking away from Kiev, between three and 20 people were reported killed in Mariupol, in one of the bloodiest clashes yet between Ukrainian forces and rebels.
The head of Nato, locked in its gravest confrontation with Russia since the Cold War, condemned Putin’s visit to Crimea, whose annexation in March has not been recognized by Western powers. He renewed doubts over an assurance by the Kremlin leader that he had pulled back troops from the Ukrainian border.
The government in Kiev called Putin’s visit, his first since the takeover of the region two months ago, a “provocation” that was intended deliberately to escalate the crisis.
Watching a military parade in Sevastopol on the Black Sea, Putin said, “I am sure that 2014 will go into the annals of our whole country as the year when the nations living here firmly decided to be together with Russia, affirming fidelity to the historical truth and the memory of our ancestors. “Much work lies ahead but we will overcome all difficulties because we are together, which means we have become stronger.”
Earlier in the day, he had presided over the biggest Victory Day parade in Moscow for years. The passing tanks, aircraft and intercontinental ballistic missiles were a reminder to the world —and Russian voters — of Putin determination to revive Moscow’s global power, 23 years after the Soviet collapse.
“The iron will of the Soviet people, their fearlessness and stamina saved Europe from slavery,” Putin said in a speech to the military gathered on Red Square. But Nato secretary-general Anders Fogh Rasmussen said: “His visit to Crimea is inappropriate.” Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseny Yatseniuk, rejects Russian allegations that his power is the result of coup backed by neo-Nazi Ukrainian nationalists. REUTERS
CRUCIAL DECISION
Despite Russian President Vladimir Putin’s call to pro-Moscow separatists for the referendum to be postponed, residents of Donetsk and Luhansk in east Ukraine will vote on Sunday on declaring sovereignty
The voters will be asked if they want establishment of sovereign ‘people’s republics’. In case of a ‘yes’ vote, they will be asked later if they want to be independent, seek to be part of Russia, or agree to stay in Ukraine with greater autonomy
If the vote is ‘yes’ and the rebels push for integration with Russia, Moscow will face a dilemma as US, EU sanctions are affecting the economy. Russia would be wary of inviting more curbs by annexing the regions
Britain is drawing up plans with the US and European countries to “disarm” the threat of President Putin using Russian gas and oil supplies as “a weapon” against Ukraine and its east European neighbours.
Next month, David Cameron and G7 leaders are expected to sign off on an “emergency response plan” to assist Ukraine if Russia restricts gas supplies. The G7 energy ministers also agreed on a plan to eliminate Europe’s reliance on Russian oil and gas over the longer term and prevent energy security being used as political bargaining chip by the Kremlin.
At present, Russia supplies 30% of all gas consumed within Europe and more than 50% of the gas used by Ukraine.
While only a small fraction of gas used by the UK comes from Russia, any restriction in supply has a huge impact on prices.
FLEXING MUSCLES
Putin visits annexed Crimea as violence flares in Ukraine
Up To 20 Killed In Clashes Between Forces & Rebels In The East
Sevastopol: President Vladimir Putin flew in to Crimea on Friday, marking the Soviet victory in WWII and proclaiming the success of the peninsula’s seizure from a Ukraine that Russia said has been taken over by fascists.
In east Ukraine, where pro-Moscow activists plan a referendum on Sunday to follow Crimea in breaking away from Kiev, between three and 20 people were reported killed in Mariupol, in one of the bloodiest clashes yet between Ukrainian forces and rebels.
The head of Nato, locked in its gravest confrontation with Russia since the Cold War, condemned Putin’s visit to Crimea, whose annexation in March has not been recognized by Western powers. He renewed doubts over an assurance by the Kremlin leader that he had pulled back troops from the Ukrainian border.
The government in Kiev called Putin’s visit, his first since the takeover of the region two months ago, a “provocation” that was intended deliberately to escalate the crisis.
Watching a military parade in Sevastopol on the Black Sea, Putin said, “I am sure that 2014 will go into the annals of our whole country as the year when the nations living here firmly decided to be together with Russia, affirming fidelity to the historical truth and the memory of our ancestors. “Much work lies ahead but we will overcome all difficulties because we are together, which means we have become stronger.”
Earlier in the day, he had presided over the biggest Victory Day parade in Moscow for years. The passing tanks, aircraft and intercontinental ballistic missiles were a reminder to the world —and Russian voters — of Putin determination to revive Moscow’s global power, 23 years after the Soviet collapse.
“The iron will of the Soviet people, their fearlessness and stamina saved Europe from slavery,” Putin said in a speech to the military gathered on Red Square. But Nato secretary-general Anders Fogh Rasmussen said: “His visit to Crimea is inappropriate.” Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseny Yatseniuk, rejects Russian allegations that his power is the result of coup backed by neo-Nazi Ukrainian nationalists. REUTERS
CRUCIAL DECISION
Despite Russian President Vladimir Putin’s call to pro-Moscow separatists for the referendum to be postponed, residents of Donetsk and Luhansk in east Ukraine will vote on Sunday on declaring sovereignty
The voters will be asked if they want establishment of sovereign ‘people’s republics’. In case of a ‘yes’ vote, they will be asked later if they want to be independent, seek to be part of Russia, or agree to stay in Ukraine with greater autonomy
If the vote is ‘yes’ and the rebels push for integration with Russia, Moscow will face a dilemma as US, EU sanctions are affecting the economy. Russia would be wary of inviting more curbs by annexing the regions
US, Europe threaten gas war with Russia
Oliver Wright
Britain is drawing up plans with the US and European countries to “disarm” the threat of President Putin using Russian gas and oil supplies as “a weapon” against Ukraine and its east European neighbours.
Next month, David Cameron and G7 leaders are expected to sign off on an “emergency response plan” to assist Ukraine if Russia restricts gas supplies. The G7 energy ministers also agreed on a plan to eliminate Europe’s reliance on Russian oil and gas over the longer term and prevent energy security being used as political bargaining chip by the Kremlin.
At present, Russia supplies 30% of all gas consumed within Europe and more than 50% of the gas used by Ukraine.
While only a small fraction of gas used by the UK comes from Russia, any restriction in supply has a huge impact on prices.
In Ukraine, signs of a new U.S.-Russia proxy war
With Russia and the United States as far apart as ever on ways of resolving the crisis in Ukraine’s southeast, its outcome may well be decided on the battlefield.
Russia’s President Vladimir Putin has not spoken with U.S. President Barack Obama since Kiev launched its “anti-terrorist operation” against anti-government protesters in Russian speaking regions in the east six weeks ago.
Two telephone talks last week between Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry showed just how irreconcilable their positions are.
While Mr. Lavrov urged Washington to pressure Kiev to “immediately cease military operations and begin direct negotiations with the south-eastern regions,” Mr. Kerry called on Moscow “to end all support for separatists, denounce their actions, and call on them to lay down their arms.”
While Moscow denounces the Ukrainian crackdown in the east as a “punitive operation” against the civilian population, Washington maintains that Kiev’s authorities “have every right to take steps to maintain law and order in their own country.”
Expanding U.S. aid
There are signs of a new proxy war warming up between Russia and the U.S. America’s Assistant Secretary of Defence Derek Chollet is coming to Kiev on Monday to discuss expanding U.S. military aid to Ukraine. Over the past three months Washington has doubled its military assistance to Kiev, according to the U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine. German intelligence sources estimated that some 400 U.S. mercenaries are fighting in Ukraine against pro-Russian separatists.
On the other side of the frontline, there are “several hundred” Russian volunteers, according to Alexander Borodai, Prime Minister of the self-declared Donetsk People’s Republic.
The Ukrainian border guard service has reported several convoys of trucks with militants and weapons crossing the porous border from Russia in recent weeks.
Russia has refrained from openly supporting separatists in eastern Ukraine and still hopes to persuade Kiev to resolve the conflict by granting broad autonomy to the region.
Jury out of outcome
Even though the Ukrainian army has overwhelming superiority in weapons and manpower, experts say the jury is still out on the outcome of the standoff.
The fighting spirit of the Ukrainian army is low because many servicemen belong to the “old guard” and cannot not see Russia as an enemy, according to Andriy Parubiy, Secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defence Council.
Ukraine’s Acting Defence Minister Mykhailo Koval admitted that the army is short of soldiers. Kiev is trying to solve the manpower problem by recruiting volunteers among radical nationalists in western Ukraine who see Russia as the main threat to Ukrainian nationhood.
The conflict in the east is fast morphing into civil war. This was in stark display earlier this month in Odessa, a peaceful multiethnic Ukrainian port city on the Black Sea, where a group of ultranationalists from western Ukraine burnt alive and clubbed to death at least 48 pro-Russian activists.
Lieutenant General (Rtd) Yuri Netkachev thinks the conflict in eastern Ukraine is unfolding along the scenario of Transdienster, a breakaway territory of former Soviet state of Moldova.
Russia to bring a U.N. resolution on Ukraine
After months of blocking any Security Council action on Ukraine, Russia called an emergency meeting of the U.N.’s most powerful body on Monday to introduce a resolution calling for an immediate halt to deadly clashes in eastern Ukraine.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Moscow will seek Security Council action to end weeks of violence in Russian-speaking eastern Ukraine. The resolution “will contain demands to immediately halt violence and begin practical negotiations for the purpose of establishing a stable and reliable cease fire,” he said. “This draft resolution will also contain a requirement to immediately create humanitarian corridors that will help civilians leave hostility zones, should they wish to do so.” — AP
Ukraine: NATO, Russia hold talks
In a hole, and still digging
United States President Barack Obama’s announcement of $1 billion in military aid to selected European NATO countries has provoked mixed reactions in Europe and Russia, and has revealed domestic pressures on Mr. Obama. Announced in Warsaw on June 3, it is known as the European Reassurance Initiative. The money will cover the dispatch of more equipment to Poland, and an increased frequency of U.S. troop-rotation there. It will also involve more air patrols over the Baltic Sea and more intensive naval operations in the northern Black Sea. It is meant particularly to allay Polish, Estonian, Latvian, and Lithuanian fears about what those countries perceive as Russian expansionism following Moscow’s annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea province in March 2014. Mr. Obama has described the security of Poland and the three Baltic states as “sacrosanct”, but has said nothing about permanent U.S. bases in the countries concerned. The plan is contemporaneous with the European Union’s intention to expedite association agreements with other former Soviet republics, such as Moldova and Georgia, for finalisation later in June rather than at the end of this year.
Inevitably, Mr. Obama’s move intensifies tensions throughout Europe. On June 2, Russia’s ambassador to NATO, Alexander Grushko, reportedly told the alliance’s foreign ministers at a meeting in Brussels that their plans could revive the Cold War and the arms race. Secondly, European NATO members are divided, with Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski complaining that Washington’s plans amount only to “virtual deployments” — but countries such as Germany, France, and the United Kingdom have strong commercial and energy-related links with Russia and may resist more confrontational measures. In addition, the EU agreements might well be no more than a way for the bloc to import cheap labour and get easy access for EU businesses. Furthermore, NATO has its own agenda; with its Afghan operations winding down, its commanders may well be desperate for a new role, as they were when the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. While NATO is under little scrutiny from member-states’ elected assemblies, it has direct access to the foreign ministers concerned and can put considerable pressure on them to increase deployments on Russia’s southern and western borders. Moreover, Mr. Obama’s domestic position is fraught. The money he has announced is subject to Congressional clearance, but both Republican and Democratic members of Congress are angry about his taking major decisions without their approval; many also consider the 73 per cent U.S. share of NATO defence spending to be excessive. The west faces Cold War questions it may never have expected to return to, but its current leaders are only exacerbating the problems.
49 killed as rebels down Ukrainian military plane
Ukraine’s new Western-backed leader vowed on Saturday to strike back at pro-Russian rebels who killed 49 troops by downing a military plane in the deadliest attack against federal forces in the two-month insurgency.
The attack came hours before top Moscow and Kiev officials were to meet in the Ukrainian capital for eleventh-hour gas negotiations aimed at averting an imminent cut in Russian supplies that would also affect large swathes of Europe.
The United States accused Russia of helping the insurgency by sending tanks and rocket launchers to the pro-Moscow rebels — a charge the Kremlin denied.
A Luhansk rebel commander, who showed pieces of the Il-76 transporter’s charred debris in a wheat field a dozen km outside the airport, said five militants shot down the plane using machine guns.
The tall and bulky commander, referred to by his unit as Mudzhakhed (Sacred Fighter), brandished a Kalashnikov rifle while listing the mostly Russian-speaking region’s grievances against the new more nationalist leaders in Kiev.
“They brought machine guns and ammunition,” Mudzhakhed said. “We do not like people telling us what to do.”
Mudzhakhed said that the plane tried to dump fuel after the rebels hit its engines. The heavy transporter crashed on its second landing approach.
Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko signalled an imminent intensification of the offensive he had pledged to end just days after his May 25 election. He vowed to deal the rebels “an adequate response.”
In Kiev, a crowd of about 300 overturned several cars before tearing down the Russian embassy flag while a dozen city police officers looked on without interfering.
Federal forces suffered still more casualties on Saturday when three border guards were killed and four wounded after being ambushed in the eastern port of Mariupol — captured with great fanfare by federal forces the day before.
German Chancellor Angel Merkel and French President Francois Hollande expressed “extreme concern” over Ukraine’s spiralling violence in a joint phone conversation with Russia’s Vladimir Putin in which they said it was important to rapidly reach a ceasefire.
Just before the transport plane was shot down, an AFP correspondent in Luhansk heard heavy fighting and a series of loud explosions.
“They were flying here to kill people. They are bombing us,” a pro-Russian man named Roman said outside the headquarters of the self-proclaimed Luhansk People’s Republic.
“They knew where they were flying and they were warned. We are the people of Luhansk. Ukraine does not exist anymore.”
The industrial hub of 400,000 inhabitants has been under effective rebel control since the eastern uprising began in early April.
Nearby border guard units have come under brazen attacks by fighters from strife-torn Russian regions such as Dagestan and Chechnya.
The Ukrainian forces have so far managed to hold on to the airport and use it to rotate equipment and troops serving in the campaign. But they have had to repel an increasingly frequent series of raids by gunmen. — AFP
Ukraine, EU sign historic trade and economic pact
Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko on Friday signed up to a trade and economic pact with the European Union, saying it may be the “most important day” for his country since it became independent from the Soviet Union.
It was the decision of his pro—Moscow predecessor, Viktor Yanukovych, to back out of the same EU association agreement in November that touched off massive protests in Ukraine that eventually led to Yanukovych’s flight abroad, Russia’s annexation of the Crimean Peninsula and the ongoing tensions between Russia and Ukraine.
Later Friday, EU heads of state and government were expected to consider whether to ramp up sanctions against Russia over its conduct toward Ukraine.
Before the signing ceremony, Poroshenko brandished a commemorative pen inscribed with the date of EU’s Vilnius summit where Yanukovych balked at approving the agreement.
“Historic events are unavoidable,” he said.
At Friday’s proceedings, the European Union signed similar association agreements with two other former Soviet republics, Moldova and Georgia.
Businesses in the three countries whose goods and practices meet EU standards will be able to trade freely in any of the EU’s 28 member nations without tariffs or restrictions. Likewise, EU goods and services will be able to sell more easily and cheaply to businesses and consumers in Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova.
“It’s absolutely a new perspective for my country,” Poroshenko said.
“There is nothing in these agreements or in the European Union’s approach that might harm Russia in any way,” insisted EU President Herman Van Rompuy. But almost immediately, Moscow made clear it was reserving the right to react.
Dmitry Peskov, a spokesman for President Vladimir Putin, told Russian news agencies that the Kremlin would respond to the EU—Ukraine accord “as soon as negative consequences arise for the economy.”
But Peskov dismissed the threat of immediate action against Poroshenko’s government. “In order for those (consequences) to arise, the signed agreement needs to be implemented,” he said.
Russia has previously imposed trade embargos against its neighbors in response to political or economic moves that the Kremlin views as unfavorable.
European Commission experts estimate implementation of the deal is expected to boost Ukraine’s national income by around 1.2 billion euros ($1.6 billion) a year. EU Enlargement Commission Stefan Fule said the trade bloc has made clear to Moscow its willingness to demonstrate that Russian economic interests will not be harmed.
Perhaps more important than the trade clauses is an accompanying 10—year plan for Ukraine to adopt EU product regulations. Such rules ease the way for international trade beyond Europe.
The deal also demands that Ukraine change the way it does business. Adopting EU rules on government contracts, competition policy and the copyright for ideas and inventions should improve the economy by making it more investor—friendly and reducing corruption.
Reminding EU leaders of the Ukrainians who died opposed Yanukovych’s government and in the ongoing battle against the pro—Russian insurgency in the country’s east, Poroshenko said Ukraine “paid the highest possible price to make her Europe dreams come true.”
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