It is increasingly clear that sustainably feeding 9 billion people—the projected world population in 2050—who will consume at the rate of 12 billion people, if they follow the current consumption pattern of industrialized countries, will require a much more careful and integrated approach to the use of land, water, and energy than we currently apply.
shows that progress in reducing the proportion of hungry people in the world has been tragically slow.
Twenty countries still have levels of hunger that are “alarming” or “extremely alarming.” Among the world’s regions, South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa continue to have the highest levels of hunger.
South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa—the two regions with the highest GHI scores, at 22.5 and 20.7 respectively—the rates of progress have also been uneven.
INDIA :
- India has lagged behind in improving its GHI score despite strong economic growth. After
a small increase between 1996 and 2001,India’s GHI score fell only slightly, and the latest GHI returned to about the 1996 level, This stagnation in GHI scores occurred during a period when India’s gross national income (GNI) per capita almost doubled, rising from about 1,460 to 2,850 constant 2005 international dollars between 1995–97 and 2008–10 (World Bank 2012).
- Between 1990 and 1996, India’s trend line moved in parallel with the predicted line, indicating that its GHI score was falling commensurate with economic growth. After 1996, however, the disparity between economic development and progress in the fight against hunger widened, and India moved further away from the predicted line
- In India, 43.5 percent of children under five are underweight (WHO 2012, ). India ranked second to last on child underweight out of 129 countries— below Ethiopia, Niger, Nepal, and Bangladesh. Only Timor-Leste had a higher rate of underweight children. By comparison, only 23 percent of children are underweight in Sub-Saharan Africa (although India has a lower proportion of undernourished in the population than Sub-Saharan Africa .
- It must be emphasized that child undernutrition is not simply the outcome of a lack of food in the household. There are many other potential causes, such as
lack of essential vitamins and minerals in the diet,
improper caring and feeding practices, or frequent infections, which often result from inadequate health services or unsanitary environments.
Women’s low status in India and other parts of South Asia contributes to children’s poor nutritional outcomes in the region because children’s development and mothers’ well-being are closely linked: women’s poor nutritional status, low education, and low social status undermine their ability to give birth to well-nourished babies and to adequately feed and care for their children.
. According to surveys during 2000–06, 36 percent of Indian women of childbearing age were underweight, compared with only 16 percent in 23 Sub-Saharan African countries .
Research has shown that early nutritional deprivation causes lasting damage to children’s physical and cognitive development,
schooling outcomes, and economic productivity in later life . These findings underline the urgent need to address the issue of child undernutrition effectively, focusing particularly on the thousand days from conception to a child’s second birthday. Whereas increases in food production and improved distribution of food may be necessary .
The findings of a recent IFPRI study imply that in the absence of concurrent improvements in health and education, only modest impacts on child undernutrition in India are to be expected from income growth .
OVERALL RANK : 65/79
SUSTAINABLE FOOD SECURITY UNDER LAND, WATER , AND ENERGY STRESSes:
1.Contributors to Natural Resource Scarcity :
Demographic Changes.: the world’s population is expected to reach more than 8 billion
by 2025 and more than 9 billion by 2050 (UN 2011).
- most countries reached TFR (except 35 in Asia n Subsahara africa) -- where the population is still growing rapidly, will face significant challenges because of expanding demand for public services, goods (such as food and clothing), and investments in education and health. Countries will need to increase such investments as the population increases, making it difficult for them to invest in other key sectors such as agriculture .
-Almost all of the additional population will live in the group of “less developed” countries (Figure 3.4). Strong income growth in many of these countries will drive the shift in diets toward more protein-rich
and more resource-demanding commodities (such as meat and milk). Those countries with growing populations and limited ability to increase domestic production in line with growing demand, particularly in the Middle East and Africa, will experience an increase in demand for imported staples and high-value agricultural commodities.
-migration from rural to urban areas in developing countries will have significant effects on food consumption patterns. About 52 percent of the world’s population currently lives in urban areas; by 2050, 67 percent will live in cities (UN 2011). When people move to urban areas, they tend to eat fewer basic staples and more fruits, livestock products, and cereals requiring less preparation. It will be a challenge to meet this demand in a sustainable manner.
Higher Incomes and Unsustainable Resource Consumption.:
Poor Policies and Weak Institutions. :
Demographic change and economic growth are the fundamental drivers of natural resource scarcity,
but the future of land, water, and energy security will be decided by agricultural, climate, energy, science, and trade policies and institutions .
e.g. Biofuel policies have, however, resulted in increased pressure on land and water. Given that biofuels are not yet economically viable, biofuel policies typically include significant tax breaks for biofuel
refineries combined with subsidies for feedstock and consumption targets or mandates for biofuels in the transportation sector. These mandates have resulted in large-scale investment in biofuels and expansion of crop area to produce biofuel crops.
2.Evidence of Natural Resource Scarcity :
ENERGY : the International Energy Agency projects an increase in real crude oil prices from US$78 a barrel in 2010 to US$140 by 2035. Rising energy prices affect agriculture in several ways. Higher
energy prices make biofuels more profitable, increasing the demand for agricultural land to be converted to the production of biofuel crops. At the same time, rising energy prices raise farmers’ costs, especially given that the agriculture sector has become more energy intensive.
Land.:
Water . Currently, 36 percent of the global population—approximately 2.4 billion people—live in water-scarce regions, and 22 percent of the world's GDP (US$9.4 trillion at 2000 prices) is produced in waterscarce areas. Moreover, 39 percent of global grain production is unsustainable in terms of water use, and 1.4 billion people live in areas with sinking groundwater levels .
Agriculture consumes 80 percent of the world’s “blue water” from rivers and aquifers, and is therefore both vulnerable to water scarcity and a contributor to it. Water scarcity is exacerbated by climate change, especially in the driest areas of the world, which are home to more than 2 billion people and to half of all poor people. Moreover, increased flooding as a result of climate change and environmental degradation threatens agriculture in many parts of the world.
Besides population growth, other factors affect current and future global water use. Economic growth, for example, increases demand for water by households, industries, and farmers. Urbanization
is associated with more water-intensive diets (meats, milk, vegetables, and sugars). Higher energy prices raise the cost of pumping water for irrigation and increase demand for hydropower. Climate change is raising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns, directly increasing demand and reducing availability of water for both rainfed and irrigated agriculture across the world.
Climate Change.: Higher temperatures reduce crop yields in much of the world while encouraging the proliferation of weeds, plant diseases, and pests. Changes in precipitation patterns shift growing seasons and increase the likelihood of crop failure in the short run and production declines in the long run. Although climate change could lead to gains in yields and cultivated area for some crops and in some regions, the overall impacts on agricultural production are projected to be highly negative, with increasing food prices intensifying the risk of hunger.
the number of people at risk of hunger is projected to increase by 10–20 percent by 2050 because of climate change.
Because the impact of climate change on child malnutrition is projected to be greatest in Sub-Saharan Africa, efforts to improve the various dimensions of the GHI need to be particularly strengthened there.
At the same time, agriculture contributes 9 percent to global greenhouse gas emissions. If land use change and deforestation, which are linked directly to agriculture, are added, the total contribution
increases to 17 percent of global emissions (WRI 2010). Three-quarters of all agricultural emissions stem from developing countries. Thus, the task at hand will be to identify those interventions that reduce the adverse impacts of climate change on agriculture and at the same time reduce agriculture’s carbon footprint.
3.Alternative Pathwa ys under Growing Natural Resource Scarcity :
focuses on increased agricultural research and development spending in developing countries, coupled with increased social investments and more judicious use of natural resources to sustainably
improve rural livelihoods and incomes. an increased focus on the conservation of water, land, and energy resources through more investment in technologies and more efficient resource use. It focuses on
those investments that reduce hunger and malnutrition, such as enhanced crop yields and livestock growth and increased investments in sanitation and female secondary education. Other factors are also
crucial for better outcomes for the poor and the environment, including improved governance, reduced inequality and greater inclusion of marginalized social groups .
RECOMMENDATIONS:
there are three overall areas in which action is needed:
1. Responsible governance of natural resources: getting the policy frameworks right :
a. Secure land and water rights
b. Phase out subsidies
c. Create a macroeconomic enabling environment
2. Scaling up technical approaches: addressing the nexus :
a. Invest in agricultural production technologies that support increased land, water, and energy efficiency
b. Foster approaches resulting in more efficient land, water, and energy use along the value chain
c. Prevent resource depletion by monitoring and evaluating strategies in water, land, energy, and agricultural systems
3. Addressing the drivers of natural resource scarcity: managing the risks
a. Address demographic change, women’s access to education, and reproductive health
b. Raise incomes, lower inequality, and promote sustainable lifestyles
c. Mitigate and adapt to climate change through agriculture
No comments:
Post a Comment